Simple Soccer Stats

Week 16 (22/11/08)

Admin — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 20:23:00 +0000

Managed to get ahead of myself this week and went through all the games on Thursday night which left me just to sift through them today.

Off to the Molinon on Sunday again when Sporting Gijón hopefully can win again and keep moving up the table. La Liga is pretty hard to read at the moment though as none of the big teams have played each other and so it’s hard to gauge form. Valencia lost at home last weekend for the second time in a row and I’m not sure about them. I was thinking of backing Sevilla at home but couldn’t quite see enough justification.

On to the matches and a corner bet to begin

Tottenham v Blackburn (English Premiership: Sun 1:30pm Local Time)

The Asian line of 11.5 is very high and it seems a few crazy games have affected it. Looking at the bottom line figures for Spurs home and Blackburn away games this would have been a winner 7/12 which is odds of 1.71 so already we seem to be doing well getting 1.9. In Spurs home defeats by Hull, Villa and Sunderland they managed 12 corners in each. In the 3 other games they drew and won the figure is 10 in total. Things have changed at White Hart Lane and I can’t see them chasing the game madly. The Bolton game was the first Redknapp match and in that and the 4 games since they have managed just 16 corners. Blackburn average 5 corners away and the only time they have had matches with over 11 corners was at Bolton and West Ham and their grounds both feature in the top 4 for total corner average.

++ Asian Total Corners – Under 11.5 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Portsmouth v Hull (English Premiership: Sat 3pm Local Time)

A couple of my friends said the wheels had to fall off Hull soon but I’m not so sure. They made quite a few acquisitions before and during the early part of the season, especially up front and that seems to have made the difference. Their home form has let them down but away from home they have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 and that includes visiting Old Trafford and the Emirates. They have scored in every away game and although they leaked 4 at Old Trafford they have only conceded 3 goals in the 5 other away games. This is part statistics part instinct as I am not a big fan of Tony Adams and I think Portsmouth will struggle to maintain the record they had with Redknapp. They come into this game with 1 win in 6 and have only scored 4 goals in those matches. In 13 matches this season they have only scored 13 goals. The price on Hull to win of 4.8 looks too big in my book and I want to risk ½pt on that and then ½pt on them to win 2-1.

++ Win Market – Hull @ 4.5 on General (½pt) – 4.8 on Blue Sq.

++ Correct Score – 1-2 @ 16/1 on Coral/Skybet/Blue Sq (½pt)

Wigan v Everton (English Premiership: Monday 8pm Local Time)

This game is on Monday but I’m including it in the weekends analysis. After taking 8 points from their first 8 games Everton have hit a decent run and taken 11 from the last 5. Wigan have won just once in the last 7 games and just once at home all season. This form with Everton’s away was the clincher for me as you can back Everton at over evens on the Asian Handicap (0)/Draw no bet. Taking Everton’s 6 away games and Wigan’s 6 at home this bet would be a winner 7 times, been voided 3 times and lost just twice. It has to be bet.

++ Asian Handicap – Everton (0) @ 2.06 on Ladbrokes (1pt) – 2.07 VC and 2.05 Bet365

Ipswich v Derby (English Championship: Saturday 3pm Local Time)

I keep an eye on Derby as I rate Paul Jewell but there was no value in them here but when looking at the game I noticed that 7/8 Ipswich home games feature 2 or 3 goals and 7/8 Derby away games featured 2-3 goals. That’s 87% chance of that happening which is odds of 1.14. I know that’s not prefect reasoning but I had a look at markets around this and when I saw 1.91 on there being 2 or 3 goals it looks like a good bet. If this is a success I’ll look at this type of bet again as the price looks decent.

++ Total Goals – 2-3 @ 1.91 on Paddy Power/Blue Sq/VC (1pt)

Bordeaux v Rennes (France: Saturday 7pm local time)

Rennes are another team I have been following this season as I think they could give decent betting opportunities. They are now up to 3^rd in the table and are the only team to have beaten the leaders Lyon and that was a 3-1 victory. On the opening day of the season they drew 4-4 with Marseille, after being 3-1 down at half time, and in the 13 matches since then have conceded just 6 goals. Amazingly away they have conceded just once in 6 matches. The problem for Rennes was drawing too many matches but with 3 wins on the bounce and no defeats since 17^th August there is something about them. Bordeaux are very strong at home and have won 5 and drawn 2 matches but I think this one could be another draw. I know they will have a job to beat Rennes so by taking Rennes on the Asian Handicap at +0.5 we essentially are getting a double chance bet.

++ Asian Handicap – Rennes (-0.5) @ 1.96 on Stan James (1pt)

Reall Mallorca v Malaga (Spain: Sunday 5pm local time)

Sporting and Malaga came up behind Numancia last season but have done very well starting the season. Malaga lost 3 of the first 4 games and then won 4 straight before hitting the crazy fixture blip which means you play Sevilla, Barca, Real Madrid and Villareal on consecutive weekends. They beat Sevilla and drew with Villareal and of the 8 teams to have been through that tunnel of death have gained the most points (4). Mallorca lost Guiza, Jonas and Matzulem in the off season and I’m not sure they have replaced them. Last home game they threw away a 2 goal lead against Athletic Bilbao who are in the bottom 3 and come to the game with 1 win in 6. They have a decent home record but 4 of the bottom 5 teams have been to the island and Gijón are the only team in the top half (that feels good) to have visited and they won 2-0. Malaga have some very talented players and I could see them doing the same.

++ Win Market – Malaga @ 3.6 on Stan James (1pt) – 3.5 on Betfred

6 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

Week 15 Roundup (16/11/08)

Admin — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 19:46:00 +0000

I felt like I’d lost this weekend so it was nice when I tallied up and found a miniscule profit. Sporting Gijon had a huge victory at Valencia on Saturday night and played very very well. Real Madrid lost and with Van Nistelrooy out for the season I think they have a real uphill task to hang on to their league title. They lost Robinho and never had any cover and with Ruud gone they will have to rely on Raul, Higuain, the injury prone Robben and Drenthe and that’s not a good place to be.

As the season goes on there always see to be teams I keep an eye on and Derby are one of them. Again they won at home at a price of evens and disappointed I wasn’t on.

I really thought the Arsenal corner bet would have been a winner when I saw the score was 2-0 to Villa but they beat them by 3 so we got our money back. The Chelsea clean sheet bet was a winner and one to keep an eye on again this season. Brum and Charlton shared 5 goals so we lost the over 2.5 bet. I will keep an eye out for more of those though. Wolves won at Southampton but Toulouse were 2-0 at HT against Grenoble so we lost there and overall on the weekend made 0.01 of a point and am sure we won’t make a smaller profit all season. At least we made a profit!

48 bets (44½ points staked) :: 18 win – 5 void – 1 half void/loss – 24 losses :: +2.3

* This does not include the 2 antepost bets.

Will look at any midweek games tonight and on Monday and post up bets then.

"If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun." - Chico Marx

Week 15 (15/11/08)

Admin — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 23:14:00 +0000

OK. Back later than I hoped but then just watched Midnight Run again and that took up a lot of time. Write ups will be shorter than normal but this week is the first week I have been able to look at patterns as they have started to emerge.

Arsenal v Aston Villa (English Premiership: Sat 3pm Local Time)

Arsenal average a whopping 9.1 corners in their home games and adding the away games in as well the average is still 8.5. The corner handicap is -3 and looking at home and away games this season (drop the Man Utd game) we would have backed a winner 7/11 times and had a void bet once. In the Villa way games they have lost by 4 corners or more 3/6 times. We get a decent price on Arsenal -3 and we may need the safety net of a 3 win that the Asian handicap allows but I think this is a good bet.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Arsenal (-3) @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)

West Brom v Chelsea (English Premiership: Sat 5:30pm Local Time)

Chelsea are 1.33 favourites for this game so the win market looks too short and you have to expect them to win. Chelsea have won 9/12 games this season and 8 of those 9 wins have been to nil. That looks the bet here and evens is available but taking Sporting Odds they offer 1.91 on Chelsea keeping a clean sheet. Chelsea have done that in 8/12 games this season as mentioned above and 5/6 times away. The Baggies have scored in 5/6 home games but this is a different kettle of fish and if we can keep getting those odds on Chelsea away they are worth taking.

++ Home team To Score – No @ 1.91 on Sporting Bet (1pt) – Alternative is Chelsea to win with a clean sheet at 2 on Boylesports.

Birmingham v Charlton (English Championship: Saturday 3pm Local Time)

7/8 Birmingham home games were under 2.5 and 6/8 Charlton away games were too. That’s 13/16 which is 81% and should be 1.23 but we can get 1.8

++ Over/Under 2.5 – Under @ 1.8 on Bet365/Betfred/Paddy Power/Skybet (1pt)

Southampton v Wolves (English Championship: Saturday 3pm Local Time)

Wolves started the season winning 7 of the first 8 games before then losing 3 in 4. They seem to be back on form again and have won 5 of the last 6 and compared to Southampton look cracking odds. The saints have won just once in the last 7 games and lost 4 of those. Even looking at the bare home record for Southampton and the away for Wolves we would expect Wolves to win 9/16 times which is 56% and odds of 1.77. Evens is widely available and Paddy Power go 2.1

++ Win Market – Wolves @ 2.1 on Paddy Power (1pt)

Toulouse v Grenoble (France: Saturday 9pm local time)

I always have a good look at France as there is often a lack of goals and some good patterns. This is the first HT result bet I have gone for but Toulouse at home have been drawing at HT 4/6 times and Grenoble away we get 5/7. That’s 9/13 which is 69% and odds of 1.44. Evens looks decent but Coral are sleeping offering 2.2. It’s standard odds they always offer for a HT draw and hopefully something we can pinpoint throughout the season.

++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.2 on Coral (1pt)

5 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

Week 14 Roundup (09/11/08)

Admin — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 19:36:00 +0000

A losing weekend which is never nice and a chance to feel slightly unlucky. Looking all games at Anfield last season and this no team had ever had more corners than Liverpool yet West Brom managed 7 to Liverpool’s 3. Might be worth keeping an eye on their corner counts but I would take that bet again tomorrow and will look for it again as the season goes on. Ipswich won 1-0 at Blackpool so no score draw and even though Genoa won 4-0 it was 0-0 at HT so we didn’t get a winner there.

The one winner was Barcelona and they were outstanding again. They have proved me wrong and converted me and I can’t wait to see them play again. They haven’t played anyone tough yet but we’ll see what they are made of in December and I think they will step up. Winning 6-0 the -2 on the handicap was easy. I want to do some analysis on them at some stage this week as they seem to score very early and there could be a lot more bets we can win on.

United lost to Arsenal and I did mention the Arsenal price looked a little wrong but can’t claim any credit as I didn’t back it. United may have signed Berbatov but I think the biggest movement in the club was Queroz going. I don’t think Ferguson is up to coaching again so a lot falls on his no.2’s shoulders and it’s interesting to see who his assistants were when they won the league.

Rennes won 3-0 away finally scoring and keeping a clean sheet again so I may be tempted by them again soon.

Lots of games in midweek mean there is the chance to find some decent bets and hopefully get back some of the money from the bookies.

edit: sorry there are no games except in Scotland so no bets!

43 bets (39½ points staked) :: 16 win – 4 void – 1 half void/loss – 22 losses :: +2.29

* This does not include the 2 antepost bets.

"If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun." - Chico Marx

Week 14 (08/11/08)

Admin — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:24:00 +0000

It’s the 1^st round of the FA cup in England and a few other leagues have the cup so there are less games to look at. Big clash between Arsenal and Man Utd on Saturday and I think Arsenal are overpriced despite all their troubles. We shall see

Liverpool v West Brom (English Premiership: Sat 5:30pm Local Time)

As this is a live game the number of markets increases but there is one fact that I think is vital and that is Liverpool do not concede many corners at Anfield. They are tighter than anyone and this season average 2.6 opponent corners at Anfield with Man United the only team to have more than 3. If we look at last season they averaged 2.6 opponent corners and in 19 games only 4 opponents managed to get more than 3 corners. Paddy Power offer evens on West Brom having less than 4 corners and taking last season and this seasons games we have 19/24 matches where the away team has managed less than 4 corners and that equates to odds of 1.26. It has to be bet! All the spread markets are available and if you do bet on that please click on my Sporting Index banner but they have markets like X-corners which multiplies the West Brom andLiverpool corners. I could see this being something like 1x7 or even 3x10 at the other end of the scale and with their line at 30-33 I think this is interesting.

++ Number of Team Corners – West Brom under 4 @ 2 on Paddy Power (1pt)

Blackpool v Ipswich (English Championship: Saturday 3pm Local Time)

A sort of novelty bet this one. Both teams have identical records in W5, D6, L4 but even Blackpool at home and Ipswich away records are identical in W2, D3, L2. So 6/14 of those games were draws which is odds of 2.33 and in 10/14 of those games both teams have scored. It just looks like a score draw to me. If we take all their games this season 1 in 3 have been score draws, so I’ll risk half a point.

++ Winning Margin – Score Draw @ 4.5 on Bet365 (½pt)

Genoa v Reggina (Serie A: Sunday 3pm)

The team with the best home record (5/5 wins) plays the team with the worst away record (5/5 defeats). The win price is low so I looked at the Asian handicap, number of goals scored etc but looking at these 10 games Genoa were winning at HT and FT 3/5 times and Reggina were losing at HT and FT 3/5. This gives us 6/10 which should be odds of 1.67 but Skybet offer a crazy 2.5, with VC and Canbet offering 2.4 and Paddy Power 2.375.

++ HT/FT – Home/Home @ 2.5 on Skybet (1pt)

Barcelona v Valladolid (La Liga: Saturday 10pm)

This is the late night live game in Spain and Barcelona have been on fire recently. They have won me over as you can’t help but admire the way they have destroyed teams. Eto’o is back to his best and that has been a real key for them. He’s a true winner and the kind of player you love to have in your team as he never stops. Barcelona have won 7 straight in the league with the last 4 results being 4-1, 5-0, 1-0 and 6-1. Last season they won this fixture 4-1 and I really think Valladolid with have no answer for them. If we take Barcelona on the AH at -2 this bet is a loser if they don’t win or only win by 1 goal. The way they have been playing I just can’t see that.

++ Asian Handicap – Barcelona (-2) @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)

3½ points staked on the weekend.

Week 13 Roundup (03/11/08)

Admin — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 10:45:00 +0000

Nice to get a decent return on the weekend. 3 of the 4 bets were winners as Bolton outscoredManchesterCity 6-1 on corners, Xanthi won 2-0 andDarlington beat Grimsby. Both parts of the double lost but a good few points profit.

Elsewhere Gijón won again making it 4 wins in a row andBarcelona were fantastic again and must be backed on the Asian Handicap in the coming weeks. In the Champions League they may rest players as they have qualified so I’ll avoid that. No other real midweek action so back next weekend.

39 bets (36 points staked) :: 15 win – 4 void – 1 half void/loss – 19 losses :: +3.74

* This does not include the 2 antepost bets.

"If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun." - Chico Marx

Week 13 (01/11/08)

Admin — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:20:00 +0000

Another weekend is here already. When there are midweek games it is hard to catch your breath. Straight into the matches.

Bolton v ManchesterCity (English Premiership: Sunday 3pm Local Time)

It’s not too often in a corner match up that the home team does not get the advantage but we have it in this team with the handicap being set at Scratch (0). Looking at the overall stats this season you can sort of see why but the results are a bit skewed as Bolton lost 7-17 in corners when they hosted Arsenal and ManCity had 5 corners more than Newcastle but that was because they played most of the match against 10 men. In Bolton’s other 4 home games they have had more corners than the away team. City seem a bit inconsistent and so this bet carries a little risk but I’m hopeful we have the right choice.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Bolton (0) @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Grimsby v Darlington (English League Two: Saturday 3pm Local Time)

Darlington lie in 3^rd place and have won 6 of the last 9 matches and won 4 of the last 5. Grimsby are very very poor and have not won this season losing 8 of 14 matches scoring just 8 goals. There’s very little I can say about this as it just looks like it has to be bet.

++ Win Market – Darlington @ 2.25 on Betfred (1pt)

OFI Crete v Xanthi (Greece : Sunday 2pm Local Time)

First time I have ventured in to Greece this season and I added Greece to the console as I think there are good opportunities to be had there. With Greece being so low scoring I debated about covering 0-1, 0-2 in this game. Xanthi have lost just once this season and that was against Olympiakos and lie in 3^rd. They have wins in 3 of the last 5 games and are unbeaten away so far, not conceding a goal. They visit bottom of the table OFI Crete who are winless so far this season. The odds of 3 look very good on Xanthi but this is Greece and they do like a draw so the best bet looks to be Draw No bet and Xanthi can be backed at 2.1.

++ Draw No Bet – Xanthi @ 2.1 on Bet365 (1pt)

Double: Man Utd v Hull (English Premiership:Saturday 3pm Local Time)/Doncaster v Swansea (English Championship: Saturday 3pn Local Time)

Swansea need to be backed in this game as Doncaster are very poor and taking draw no bet we get small odds which needs to be paired with something else. When I looked at Man Utd I saw that the price on under 3.5 goals looked decent and its an odd market as you would think United would score more than 3 quite a bit. This season just 1/9 United matches has featured over 3 goals and last season 27/38 games were under 3.5 goals which is odds of 1.4. For Hull in the championship 37/46 games were under 3.5.

++ Under 3.5 @ 1.62/Swansea DNB @ 1.73 = 2.80 on Paddy Power (1pt)

4 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

MidWeek 12.5 Roundup (30/10/08)

Admin — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 09:34:00 +0000

Unlucky? Who knows and I’m sure if we were it will even itself out. Barnet led 2-0 before drawing 2-2 andRennes still can’t find the net anddrew 0-0 for the 4^th time in 5 away games so both those bets were void. The loser was NottsCounty where Rochdale won 2-1 making both bets a loser.

35 bets (32 points staked) :: 12 win – 4 void – 1 half void/loss – 18 losses :: +1.49

Back with the weekend selections on Friday