View Article  Round Up (Week 27.5)

SSS Tips
The Chester v Stockport match finished 0-0 so no change at all as we went for draw no bet and happy with that. The weekend to look forward to and hope to get the bets out around Friday lunchtime

NOTES

Have updated the result from last night and also added a feedback form to the website. Please give feedback if you read this even just to say that you read this!

View Article  Week 27.5 Bets (29.04.08)

I thought I'd have a quick look at the one remaining game this midweek and didn't expect to find it worth betting but really I think it is.

SSS Tips

Chester v Stockport (eng lge 2 – tues 7:45pm local time)

Chester are 3 points above Mansfield who sit in the last relegation spot. A win or a draw tonight and Chester will be playing league football again next season. A loss would mean they have to win or draw on Saturday instead against Macclesfield which looks easier than tonights task. In their last 10 games Chester have taken just 5 points, scoring just 6 goals, and lost 9 of the last 10 games at home. Stockport are in the playoffs where they are likely to play Rochdale and one of the most important things with playoffs is to go in with some momentum and I don't think they'll let Chester have it easy. In terms of form Stockport lost their last 2 games but one was against the champions MK Dons. In their last 11 away games they have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 1 and although I am keen on backing them for the win at 3.2 I think the draw no bet option is the way to go. Chester would be overjoyed with a draw and I would think Stockport might not bust a gut for a winner if the game heads towards the end all square.
++ Draw No Bet – Stockport @ 2.1 on Sporting Bet/VC/Bet Direct/Stan James (1pt)

1 point staked

NOTES

I'll update this game on Wednesday morning. Everything is ready for the weekend and the fixture list is dwindling. It's the final league weekend in the english championship, league one and two and scotland packed up last weekend bar the premier league.
View Article  Round Up (Week 27)

Well a nice weekend which was needed. 4 out of 5 bets won and we got a lucky hand with the corner bet as Blackburn had 4 corners in the second half one after the other. Think we were due that and everything evens itself out.

Chelsea kept the race alive in England but Real Madrid wrapped it up in Spain. A poor season and means they have the game against Barcelona to come with nothing riding on it.

SSS Tips
Wigan and reading drew 0-0 and that was the loser. Sheffield Utd beat Bristol City 2-1, Peterborough thrashed Grimsby 4-1 and Deportivo beat Barça 2-0 so they were all landed. The corner bet was a one corner supremacy to Portsmouth so we scraped in there. Very glad with the winners and hopefully we can find some more teams on form that will help us out before the end of the season. 20 points is back in touching distance again.

Bets 184 Wins 81 (plus 12 void and 6 void/lost), Points 168.5 staked Profit +19.81

Spinner Rinse
Predicatably there was no winner for the rinse. Sheffield United and Hearts won, Queens park lost and Lyon drew. A way back for the rinse looks unlikely and it will be buried before next season.

Accumulators 27, Winners 1, Profit -19.49

NOTES

Updating the results now and everything will be in first thing on Monday morning.

View Article  Week 27 Bets (27.04.08) extra corner bet for sunday

SSS Tips

A bit late but I really like this bet. 3/4 today so very pleased with that.

Portsmouth v Blackburn (eng prem – sun 1:30pm local time)

As I stated recently FrattonPark formerly was the home of the corner and I would be interested to what happened half way through this season to change it. Maybe Taylor going? The first 7 games were like the past 2 seasons as Pompey wracked up 58 visits to the small D in the corner of the pitch. In the 10 games since they have just been there 41 times and the stats say 4-5 corners for them is likely tomorrow. The handicap is 2 on PP and -1.5 on Bet365 and dropping big 4 matches they would have won that in the first 4 games and then only won it once in the last 8. Blackburn’s season has been a reverse as, dropping all big 4 matches, they had 27 corners in the first 7 games so that’s an average of under 4 but since then it’s been 44 in 6 games which is an average of over 7 and they would have lost this handicap in just one of the last 9 games. The Paddy Power price is best but Bet365 offer 1.85 on Blackburn +1.5 so not a huge amount of difference.
++ Corner Handicap –
Blackburn +2 @ 1.91 on Paddy Power (1pt)
View Article  Week 27 Bets (26.04.08) Update

SSS Tips

There is no corner bet this weekend. Under 11 in the big live clash looks good value at 1.91 on Stan James but it's a bit late to out that up. I'll look at Sundays matches later to see if there is any possible bet there.

The Peterborough Ladbrokes price has been cut to evens but still good value and Deportivo dropped to the same price on the Draw No Bet for the Barcelona game. Doesn't matter unless they win so fingers crossed.

View Article  Week 27 Bets (26.04.08)

SSS Tips

Again I am putting this up early mainly as Peterborough are available at 2.1 on Ladbrokes and everywhere else is 1.91 so that needs to be snapped up if possible. The Deportivo price might not hang around either as that was cut yesterday.

We have been treated like a fool in April and need a few winning selections to put us back close to 20 points. I’m sticking to 1 corner bet and entirely win and AH bets this weekend to see if that improves things.

The Premier League may well be wrapped up this weekend and the games this weekend in Spain mean Madrid may go into their game on Sunday knowing a win will give them another title. Normally I’m a bit sad when the season draws to a close but with the European Championships and a break from this on the cards it might be quite nice.

I’ve said before that I am revamping the site for next season. I believe the improvements will be huge and I will take football stats on a long way in terms of presentation. I want to get far more information available but with the user deciding what they want to see. If you have any comments on anything you like or don’t like or would like to see it is always appreciated and I can be e-mailed on mail@simplesoccerstats.com.

A corner bet will follow.

All Wins and AH from here.

Wigan v Reading (eng prem – sat 3pm local time)

A win for Wigan in this game and they would probably consider themselves safe and at home they have had some good results lately. They have not lost in the last 6 at home and only lost 2 of the last 11. Bolton, Birmingham and Derby have all visited the Reebok in the last 5 games and all have left empty handed without scoring. Reading have won just once away all year and lost 13/17 away and 6 of the last 7. Only Derby have a worse away record. If Wigan had nothing to play for I might leave this but they need a win and are on form and the price looks very generous at above evens.
++ Win Market –
Wigan @ 2.1 on Bet365/Paddy Power/Stan James/Skybet (1pt)

Grimsby v Peterborough (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)

Peterborough have been promoted with MK Dons and it could be said they have nothing to play for but they have a lot more to play for than Grimsby. A win for Peterborough and they would still be in with an outside chance of being champions. They have a young team which has lost just once in the last 19 matches and haven’t lost for 10 matches away and won 8 of those. Grimsby started the season poorly then had an excellent run that took them to safety and then slipped back again and are comfortably mid-table. They have lost 5 games on the bounce, whereas Posh have won 4 out of the last 5. Winning is a habit and I would expect Peterborough to keep there’s up in this game at a decent price.
++ Win Market –
Peterborough @ 2.1 (1pt) else 1.91 generally or evens on Betfair

Sheffield United v BristolCity (eng championship – sat 3pm local time)

As we enter the part of the season Alex Ferguson famously called squeaky bum time there are some teams that haven’t performed. Bristol City are one of them and after sitting in the automatic positions they have won just 1 of the last 9 games and could find themselves in 5th or 6th at the end of Saturday. Sheffield United are the form team in the division having taken 23 of a possible 30 in the last 10 games and Blackwell has got them finishing the season strongly. They have won 4 of the last 5 at home and beat previously on fire Hull last weekend and look good value to take another scalp from a top team. They may be one to watch next season as well.
++ Win Market – Sheffield United
@ 2.1 on general (1pt)

Deportivo La Coruña v Barcelona (spain – sat 8pm local time)

The league is pretty much wrapped up in Spain after Real Madrid won at Santander last weekend. They knew it as well. Barcelona have a much more important game next Tuesday and I imagine some of their players will be rested. The squad is big and strong and the team they put out will be hard to beat but away from home this season Barcelona have only won 4 times in 16 matches. They travel to the Riazor and the transformation from Depor have been amazing this season. In Spain they refer to the season being in two halves and for Deportivo they managed 24 points in their first 24 matches and were in relegation trouble but in the last 9 games they have accumulated 22 points and have the best record in La Liga over the last 10 games. Xisco has been banging in the goals and 6 wins in the last 7 at home is a cracking record especially as both Real Madrid and Sevilla visited in that period.
++ Asian Handicap – Deportivo (0) = Draw No Bet @ 2.05 on Stan James/Bet Direct (1pt)

4 points bet in total with a possible 1 more to come.

Spinner Rinse

We live in hope. Sheffield Utd to beat Bristol City (championship), Hearts to beat Inverness (scots prem), Queens park to win at Cowdenbeath (scots 2) and Lyon to beat Caen (france)
++ Four-fold accumulator @ 11.11 on Skybet

View Article  Round Up (Week 26)

That weekend hurt, it really did. 3 losers in 6 bets and again a small loss on the weekend. I thought this could be a good one but small margins make a big difference and a stoppage time corner at Craven Cottage was the body blow. I am a firm believer that luck does even itself out, so maybe we had some good times earlier in the season. There were a couple of late goals I remember than turned losing bets to winners. The loss on the weekend was -0.4 and April so far has shown a loss of -3.13 points and we move further from that magical 20 point barrier.

In Spain Real Madrid look to have wrapped up the title and the season is drawing to a close across Europe and so betting opportunites are fading. I haven't had a chance to look at midweek fixtures but hopefully there are some games to give us a chance to win back this weekends loss.

Champions League in midweek and I can't see Barcelona managing to beat Man United. I just hope United have a go at Camp Nou as there are rewards there if you do.

SSS Tips
The corner bet was a loser by the thinnest of margins as I mentioned above. It finished 3-3 in corners and Liverpool couldn't muster a single second half corner. Wrexham beat Notts County 1-0 but it was 0-0 at HT so that bet was a winner as well as St Etienne keeping a clean sheet as they won 1-0. The Wigan v Spurs bet was void and the Wigan price went pretty quickly but looks like Spurs dominated the game in terms of shots. Lens beat Socheaux 3-2 so that was a loser and Zarazoza beat Recreativo 3-0 after scoring in the 4th minute. Recreativo had a man sent off before HT but were two down by then so it can't have made much difference.

Bets 178 Wins 77 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 162.5 staked Profit +16.65

Spinner Rinse
The winners were Rochdale and Fiorentina but Boro and Sevilla lost and Roma could ony draw with relegation candidates Livorno. This has put me right off accumulators and I know it would only take one big one to land to win this back but really the bookies like to encourage this bet and they must have good reasons for that.

Accumulators 26, Winners 1, Profit -18.49

NOTES

Will update all the weekend results on Monday morning and check the weeks fixtures then.

View Article  Week 26 Bets (19.04.08)

SSS Tips

Very happy with the bets I have found this weekend and hopeful for a good return.

A huge weekend in the Championship as 3 plays 4, 5 plays 6 and 7 plays 8. Hopeful the mighty Palace can prevail at Watford and bring a return to the big time closer. It’s the Barcelona derby in Spain and an out of form Espanyol probably won’t be able to challenge Barca and then it’s the champions league again next week.

A corner bet to begin.

Fulham v Liverpool (prem – sat 3pm local time)

I was surprised by the handicap quote for this game but looking at the stats it looks about right, but that's just looking at the base topline stats and there's more than that to it. In Fulham home games the away team averages a +0.7 corner supremacy and for Liverpool away they average a +1.5 corner supremacy. In Liverpool's first 6 away games they lost the corner match bet 5 of 6 times but since then in 10 games have won 7 out of 10 (each time by 2 or more) and drawn at Reading and only lost at Chelsea and Arsenal. If we drop the games against the other big 4, as we know these produce low corners, they average exactly 8 corners in the last 7 matches. Fulham average just 5.8 corners at home and managed just 3, 4 and 4 corners in games against the other big 4. In the 7 home games they have played in 2008 they average under 4.5 corners and really I would think a handicap of -1.5, -2 on Liverpool would be more realistic.
++ Asian Handicap Corners -
Liverpool -0.5 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

When Fulham played Sunderland a few weeks back I was a minute away from landing a HT 0-0 bet and will try again.

Wrexham v NottsCounty (eng div 2 – sat 3pm local time)

Wrexham could be relegated at the end of this game and I imagine it will be tight. 14/21 Wrexham home games have been draws at HT and 13 of those were 0-0 and 5 of the last 6 home games for the have been 0-0 at HT. For Notts County 11/21 have been HT draws and 8 of those were 0-0. 4 of the last 6 County away games were 0-0 and they didn’t score in the first half in any of these games. Taking the 0-0s it’s 21/42 which is evens so with the nature of the game being tight the price of 2.6 is value.
++ Half Time Score – 0-0 @ 2.6 on Bet365 (1pt)

A further different style of bet before we get to the more straightforward ones.

St Etienne v Lorient (france – sat 8pm local time)

I have kept an eye on St Etienne recently and started writing this same bet a few weeks back but bottled it and have to go for it this time. St Etienne have amazingly conceded just 4 goals in 16 away games. It’s an amazing record that 75% of their home games have resulted in a clean sheet and I am betting on there being one more. Lorient are the visitors and they have scored the 4th least amount of goals away from home this season and have scored in just 1 of the past 8 away games. There will be more markets for this later like clean sheet but I want to get this message out so the Away team to score – No is the only market and Expekt offer 2.15, where I’ll be betting this, but I’ll put in the Sporting bet price of evens. I will add a note later if I see more prices.
++ Away Team to Score - No @ 2 on Sporting Bet (1pt)

The more traditional fare.

Wigan v Tottenham (prem – sat 3pm local time)

Away from home this season Spurs have been poor managing just 2 wins in 17 games and these wins came at rock bottom Derby and a good result at Portsmouth. Wigan drew with Chelsea in the week and have only lost 2 of their last 8 matches and looking at home form have win 4 of the last 5 and lost just 2 in the last 10. They can be backed at scratch (0) on the AH and using the AH console you can see this would have been a winner 16 times, lost just 7 and voided 10 times. That’s 16/23 wins (70%) and should be odds of 1.44 and not the 1.93 available. With the good recent from of Wigan this looks worth a point. This price seems to be going as the draw no bet was 1.95 earlier on Bet365 and was cut to 1.83 and the Asian Handicap has been cut to 1.9
++ Asian Handicap – Wigan (0)
@ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Lens v Socheaux (france – sat 5:10pm local time)

Like someone smuggling cheap alcohol it’s back to France again for the next bet. At home this season Lens have won just 4/16 matches and just one of the last 10. They have drawn 7 of those 10 but really aren’t winning at the moment. They have the worst record in the division over the last 10 games and have managed just 5 of a possible 30 points. Socheaux arrive unbeaten in 9 games and have had a great run taking 19 of the available 30 points in the last 10 games and moving themselves to safety. Maybe they don’t have as much to play for but they have the form and will be very hard to beat. Away from home only Lyon have a better record than them and they have won 4 on the bounce. I could see them winning and would be surprised if they lose so taking the AH (0, +0.5) we get a small profit if they draw.
++ Asian Handicap – Socheaux (0, +0.5) @ 2.025 on Bet365 (1pt)

Below is the bet already advised on Thursday night and the price still stands.

Real Zaragoza v Recreativo Huelva (spain – sat 8pm local time)

Last weekend Recreativo gave Barcelona a run for their money and it was interesting to see the first choice Barça rearguard being given the runaround by former Liverpool striker Sinama-Pongolle and Villareal loanee Rubin. Recre have lost 3 of their last 10 matches but those defeats were against Real Madrid with some dubious ref decisions, a crazy 7-1 defeat at Mallorca and a loss away at 5th place Santander. None of these a disgrace and it’s a bit of a surprise to see them at such a long price against a Zaragoza team in crisis. Zaragoza have taken just 5 points from a possible 30. They have won just once in the last 10 games, losing 7 of those and are on their 3rd manager of the season. The fans have been on their back and stayed behind after the last home game, a 3-0 defeat by Betis, to scream abuse at each player as he got in his car. This game is a relegation battle and with Zaragoza in the bottom 3 and Recre one place above them but 3 points better off it is the classic 5 pointer and a Recreativo win would put Zaragoza at least 5 points from safety. The pressure is all on Zaragoza and Recreativo are the team in better form and the price on offer looks crazy.
++ Win Market – Recreativo @ 4.75 on Bet365 (1pt)

6 points bet in total.

Spinner Rinse

A sucker for punishment. Middlesboro to beat Bolton (Prem), Rochdale to beat Morecombe (lge 2), Roma to beat Livorno, Fiorentina to beat Palermo (both Italy) and Sevilla to beat Almeria (Spain).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 9.98 on Skybet

NOTES

All games will be updated on Monday morning.

View Article  Week 26 Bets (19.04.08) EARLY BET

I know some other tipsters give out early prices and I am not normally one to do it but there's a game on Saturday where bet365 offer 4.75 and other firms have a far more realistic 3.75. As I'd done the write-up I thought I may as well get this out in the open. 

Real Zaragoza v Recreativo Huelva (spain – sat 8pm local time)

Last weekend Recreativo gave Barcelona a run for their money and it was interesting to see the first choice Barça rearguard being given the runaround by former Liverpool striker Sinama-Pongolle and Villareal loanee Rubin. Recre have lost 3 of their last 10 matches but those defeats were against Real Madrid with some dubious ref decisions, a crazy 7-1 defeat at Mallorca and a loss away at 5th place Santander. None of these a disgrace and it’s a bit of a surprise to see them at such a long price against a Zaragoza team in crisis. Zaragoza have taken just 5 points from a possible 30. They have won just once in the last 10 games, losing 7 of those and are on their 3rd manager of the season. The fans have been on their back and stayed behind after the last home game, a 3-0 defeat by Betis, to scream abuse at each player as he got in his car. This game is a relegation battle and with Zaragoza in the bottom 3 and Recre one place above them but 3 points better off it is the classic 5 pointer and a Recreativo win would put Zaragoza at least 5 points from safety. The pressure is all on Zaragoza and Recreativo are the team in better form and the price on offer looks crazy.
++ Win Market – Recreativo @ 4.75 on Bet365 (1pt)

The other bets will follow tomorrow.

View Article  Round Up (Week 25.5)

I was looking at the Celtic v Rangers game and the corners but have decided against betting it. I looked back over the last 4 years and 10 of the 14 matches were under 10 corners and although under 11 is available at 1.91 the fact that Celtic really need the win and will be forced to press the game makes me steer clear. Added to an illness in the household means it's safer to stay as no bet and just swallow the one point loss on these games.

SSS Tips
Emile Heskey scoring is pretty rare and was gutted he popped up with a 90th minute equaliser for Wigan at Chelsea. I had debated the AH as Wigan were +1.5 but the odds on the win margin of one goal for Chelsea were too good to turn down and no regrets on that bet.

Bets 173 Wins 75 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 157.5 staked Profit +17.05

NOTES

Will update results in the morning. Also have started to work on a revamp of the console for next season. Will incoporate all consoles into one and give the user far more interaction on what stats they want to see. Any feedback on the site or things you would like to see would be greatly appreciated.

View Article  Update (Week 25.5)

Unlucky last night as an Emile Heskey 90th minute equaliser meant our bet was a loser. I'll sum that up at the end of the midweek period but there is not bet for tonights matches, but tomorrow I like the look of one bet but need some more prices to come out. Tonight I'll put anything up that I have.

View Article  Week 25.5 Bets (14.04.08) Part I

As there's a bet I want to do for tonights game I'll get this out now. There may be other bets for later this week as there are a handful of games in England and Scotland and a full program in Germany. I'll post any other bets up later tonight.

SSS Tips

Chelsea v Wigan (prem – mon 8pm local time)

Chelsea have a busy week as they also have a match on Thursday against Everton but first up need to dispatch Wigan. Odds of 1.22 do not appeal in the slightest but an interesting stat I noticed on the AH console was that 7 of Chelsea's 11 home wins have come by just one goal and that has included games against Middlesborough (2-1), Reading (1-0), Newcastle (2-1) and West Ham (1-0). Wigan have lost just 3 of the last 9 games and with Chelsea playing twice in a week might be able to keep this game close. If we go back to the winning margin for Chelsea in 4 of the 8 games against teams in the lower half of the league they have won by just one goal and all in all the 7/16 record is 44% or odds of 2.29 but Boyles offer a generous 3.75 and I think it's worth a bet.
++ Winning Margin – Chelsea to win by 1 Goal @ 3.75 on Boyles (1pt)

1 point staked

NOTES

Games will be updated Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday throughout the week and any other midweek bets will be added tonight.

View Article  Round Up (Week 25)

Second losing weekend on the trot. Last weekend we made the loss back up in the midweek period and hopefully that will be the case again this time. A frustrating weekends games but they were the ones I chose so I can't complain. I think I will knock these bets concerned with half time on the head as they don't produce many winners and I would need to do them every week I think to get a proper idea about them.

Real Madrid and Man Utd both took big steps towards defending their titles. Barcelona had their first choice defence out yest shipped 2 goals drawing at Recre and their Champions league tie against United could be a cracker especially as Messi made his return on Sunday.

SSS Tips
Once again te corner bet was a winner and a very easy one at that as Newcastle outscore Pompey 11-2. Cheltenham let in 2 goals in 2 minutes and amazing lost 2-1 to Walsall (they still got their customary goal). Juventus beat Milan 3-2 so the 0-0 bet was wildly off the mark but it was a HT draw and was the 80th minuted when Juve finally scored against the 10 men of Milan. Reggina beat Sampdoria 1-0 but thankfully Racing Santander won 2-1 at Valencia so we landed that bet.

Bets 172 Wins 75 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 156.5 staked Profit +18.05

Spinner Rinse
More spoils for the bookies as 2 winners, 1 draw and 1 loser with the 2 Italian games as the winners.

Accumulators 25, Winners 1, Profit -17.49

NOTES

Weekend results will be updated on Monday morning and a bet put up for midweek as well.

View Article  Week 25 Bets (12.04.08)

SSS Tips

Hopefully some lessons learnt from previous weeks in terms of bets but we’ll see. Struggled to find much in England and rather than force bets there have looked elsewhere and have gone very Italian this weekend. It wasn’t purposeful but the bets there just stood out.

Another big game in England for Arsenal and a big clash in Italy as well. No major games in Spain but surely another chance for the top teams to throw points away.

A corner bet to begin.

Portsmouth v Newcastle (eng prem - sat 5:15 local time)

Being the live game there is a wide array of possible corner bets to choose from but the straight corner handicap is the one I like although it will be the first time I have gone with Skybet for one of these. Keegan took over Newcastle after the away hammering at Old Trafford and in his next away game they went to the Emirates and managed to get just two corners. In the four games since they have  had 5, 8, 8 and 7. If we take the whole season (dropping games against the big 4) they average 5 corners to Pompey's 6.5. So it looks like Pompey will shade the handicap but I think this is a bit deceiving as the Portsmouth corner counts have fallen away as the season progressed. FrattonPark used to be corner central and in the first 7 games of the season Portmouth averaged over 8 corners but in the 9 games since then the average has dropped to 4.33 and they've only got over 5 corners once in those games. They could get 5 corners tomorrow and taking the Newcastle +2 handicap on offer from Skybet Keegan's charges would only have to get 4 to beat the handicap which is well within their grasp. Bet365 offer Newcastle +1, +1.5 @ 1.95 as an alternative.
++ Corner Handicap -
Newcastle +2 @ 1.91 on Skybet (1pt)

A correct score bet again.

Cheltenham v Walsall (eng div 1 – sat 3pm local time)

We have bet on Cheltenham scores a couple of times and been victorious and although I may be going to the river one time to many it just looks a good bet again. 17/21 Cheltenham home games have been under 2.5 goals and 16/21 Walsall away games so you have to think it will be a tight affair, especially as Cheltenham home games have seen less goals than anywhere else in the division. At home Cheltenham have score 1 goal in 16 games, kept scoreless 3 times and scored 2 goals just twice so now it looks like a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline and ½ a point on each looks sensible.
++ Correct Score – 1-0 @ 8 on Stan James/Ladbrokes/Bet Direct (½pt)
++ Correct Score – 1-1 @ 6.5 on most firms (½pt)

Juventus v Milan (serie a – sat 8:30pm local time)

A bit of an ambitious one this but I think it is worth ½ a point. 9/15 Juve home games have been HT draws and 10/16 Milan away games. That’s where the stats play their part and then I think this game could well end in a draw as the last 2 games between these teams have and 3 of the last 5. In fact 3 of the last 5 games between these clubs have finished 0-0 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that again. The 9/1 on offer from Sporting Odds looks much too big but I’ll settle for a safer draw/draw option in case it’s a 1-1 scoreline.
++ Half Time/Full Time – Draw/Draw @ 4.5 on VC/Ladbrokes/Blue Sq/Stan James/Corals (½pt)

++ Correct Score – 0-0 @ 10 on Sporting bet (½pt)

The more traditional fare.

Reggina v Sampdoria (serie A – sun 3pm local time)

Looking at recent games this looks like a standout bet but the home form of Reggina has been decent. In the last 10 games no-one has performed better than Sampdoria in Italy and they have only tasted defeat just once in the last 12 games and won 5 of the last 6. Away from home they lost 7 of the first 9 games but since then have lost just twice in 7 away games and won 4 of the last 5. Sampdoria are still in line for a place in Europe but need to keep winning, whereas Reggina need to keep winning as they are bottom of the league but know one win and they could be out of the relegation zone. They have just 2 wins in the last 14 games and 1 in the last 8 but at home have not lost for 4 matches. Sampdoria could well win and 3 is a very generous price but also it’s more unlikely they will lose so taking the AH bet/Draw no bet option looks more sensible.
++ Asian Handicap – Sampdoria (0)
@ 2.1 on Bet365 (1pt)

Valencia  v Racing Santander (la liga – sat 8pm local time)

Racing have been a revelation this season and lie in 5th place and could well snatch the fourth champions league place. They have the 5th best away record and this weekend travel to Valencia with 5 wins in the last 7 games and away from home only Villareal (a game I watched) and Barcelona have kept them scoreless in the last 11 games. They have lost just 6 times away this season and the unpredictable Getafe and Recreativo are the only teams outside the top 6 to beat them in those games. They visit Valencia who have had a truly awful time since Koeman took over. They have won just 3 of the last 19 games and have only won once in the last 9 at home. Only Levante, rock bottom and also from Valencia, have a worse home record than them this season and Koeman chucked out some senior players when he arrived and turned a lot of people against him. The press don’t seem to be too impressed either and the team only seem to perform in big games, like away to Real Madrid recently or the Copa del Rey. The AH of Racing 0, +0.5 looks very good value being above evens.
++ Asian Handicap – Racing
Santander (0, +0.5) @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)

5 points bet in total.

Spinner Rinse

4 selection rather than 5 this weekend and see if it makes any difference. Sunderland to beat ManCity (prem), Preston to beat Barnsley (championship), Napoli to beat Atalanta and Palermo to beat Catania (both Italy).
++ Four-fold accumulator @ 17.71 on Bet365

NOTES

On Monday night Chelsea play Wigan and there will be a bet in that game on the winning margin. Games will be updated on Monday morning and that bet will be added when the blog is updated.

View Article  Round Up (Week 24.5)

SSS Tips
Just the one bet from yesterday and happily it was a winner. West Ham beat the corner handicap quite easily as they outscored Pompey 7-4.

Bets 165 Wins 73 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 151.5 staked Profit +19.085

NOTES

Tuesdays results are all in. The referees for the weekend games are all added already so one more updated on Thursday morning with Wednesdays results but all weekend games are ready.

View Article  Week 24.5 Bets (08.04.08)

Came up with quite a few possible bets here but have whittled it down to just one. I did like the look of under 2.5 in the NottsForest game but at 1.8 it’s hard to recommend a bet. The St Etienne game n France looked interesting as they have conceded just 4 goals in 15 home games but Lens seem to score quite freely.

SSS Tips

West Ham v Portsmouth (prem – tues 7:45pm local time)

The corner handicap for this game has been priced up quite closely but looking at the recent patterns I think West Ham might have a bigger advantage that the bookmakers think. West Ham average 6.5 corners at home which is in the top half of the averages and each game they average a supremacy of 1 corner over their opponents. Pompey are the visitors and away from home they average a paltry 3.8 corners, only Derby average less, and the supremacy averages out to 2 more for the home team. The handicap is West Ham -0.5, -1 and taking home games excluding the big 4 they would have won 6 of 11 times and had one half win/half void. Excluding games v the big 4 their supremacy rises to 1.8 corners per game. If we look at Pompey, and again exclude games v the big 4, this bet would have been a winner 7 of 12 times with 3 half win/half void so only twice in 12 games would it have been a losing bet. In these 12 games only once did Pompey manage over 5 corners and that was at Derby in August and since the turn of the year they have had just 19 corners in 6 away games. West Ham’s 5 home games of 2008 have netted 33 corners and this bet has to be taken.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – West Ham -0.5, -1 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

1 point staked

NOTES

Games will be updated Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

View Article  Round Up (Week 24)

Never like a losing weekend but that's what it was. A goal in first half stoppage time at Craven Cottage was the difference between a winning and losing weekend. Can't be too dissapointed though as the loss was just -0.59pts and although we are now over 1.5pts down on the month a decent bet or two and we'll be back in profit.

There are over 10 games in England this midweek as well as one in France and a few in Scotland so I'd say it's likely there will be at least one bet.

Another funny weekend in Spain as the top 3 managed 2 pts between them and Real Madrid were incredibly lucky and owe the ref a big thanks from Saturday night. Barca were unlucky on Sunday but the 0-0 draw was followed by the newspaper waving from fans showing their displeasure. It really has been a poor season in Spain and if Messi is still out you really will have to fancy Man Utd to give them a good going over if they meet in the Champions League.

SSS Tips
The corner bet was a winner agaian as Arsenal and Liverpool shared 8 corners and really pleased with that stat regarding corners in games between the big 4. As mentioned above Sunderland scored in the 45th minute at Fulham and robbed us of 1.6pts and made he difference on the weekend. Catania Whopped Napoli and were 2-0 up at HT. Northampton did the business for us though winning 2-1 but being 2-0 up at HT so both parts of the bet were landed. Eintracht Frankfurt lost 3-1 after being 1-0 up and that bet did look to good to be true and maybe it was!

Bets 164 Wins 72 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 150.5 staked Profit +18.18