View Article  Round Up (Week 23)

Well a weekend where nothing was won and nothing was lost. However, if the correct score double was backed on Bet365 you will find yourself up 2.5 points. I couldn't work out why for ages but it seems they refund all losing correct score bets on 0-0 matches so we ended up with a 1/2point bet on the 1-1 at 7 on Bet365 in the Cheltenham game.

In Spain Real Madrid finally won again beating Sevilla but Villareal are now in 2nd place and must be kicking themselves for all the points they surrended earlier in the season.

SSS Tips
The corner bet was a winner as Reading and Newcastle shared 13 and I still can't belive the Expekt quote for that game. For the correct score double the Cheltenham v Northampton bit was right at 1-1 but Notts County and Mansfield finished 0-0 and really the nature of the game being so important it might have been prudent to have avoided that game. Nevertheless as I stated above if it was backed on Bet365 a nice 2.5 point profit on the weekend will have been made. Spurs amazingly were crushed 4-1 by Newcastle. Not much that can be said about that as the bet couldn't have been more wrong. The Chester v Stockport game was abandoned due to heavy rain and the trip to Scotland was fruitful as Brechin beat Cowdenbeath with 2 late goals.

Bets 156 Wins 69 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 144.5 staked Profit +19.77

Spinner Rinse
The bookies were laughing at the rinse again with 3 out of 5 winning selections as Napoli, Deportivo and Chelsea obliged but Hamburg drew and Spurs lost.

Accumulators 23, Winners 1, Profit -15.49

NOTES

All the weekend results are in. There are a handful of midweek games in England and Scotland which I will look at later. When I update the games on Wednesday I'll add the referees for the weekend matches.

View Article  Week 23 Bets (29.03.08) extra Corner Bet

SSS Tips

This is much later than I hoped but I had to go through the games a few times to find this.A bit of a novelty bet.

Reading v Blackburn (prem – sat 3pm local time)

A high corner line as the Madjeski took the crown from Fratton Park and with Reading averaging 12.7 corners in home games and Blackburn 12.3 in away games it looks like a good bet. Reading matches have the most corners whether they are home or away but Blackburn matches have the 4th most corners of teams away. Looking at the stats with the line at 11.5, 12 this would have won 15/31, half won/half voided another 5 times and lost only 11/31 times. The fact that Blackburn average so many corners away should edge it more in our favour. If anyone has an account with Expekt they have priced up over 10.5 at 1.75 and deserve to be punished for that!
++ Asian Total Corners - Over 11.5, 12 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

5 points staked in total on the weekend now.

 

View Article  Week 23 Bets (29.03.08)

SSS Tips

Be nice if we could break the 20 point barrier again this weekend and not sink back below it! I’ve tried to concentrate more in England this weekend but there were a few bets elsewhere I really liked.

Last weekend I called the Sevilla v Atletico Madrid game wrongly and the price on Sevilla had collapsed pre-game so it was a big surprise. Both teams have big games this weekend and with 3rd place Villareal hosting Atletico and Sevilla travelling to Real Madrid it could make for an interesting weekend. It could be that Villareal find themselves 3 points off the top on Sunday night.

Normally I’ll kick off with a corner bet but the odds aren’t out for these yet so I’ll look at them later. Rather than hold all the bets off till I’ve checked them I’ll just add it later.

A bit of a novelty bet.

Cheltenham v Northampton (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time) / Notts Country v Mansfield (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

A one-off bet here and the first time I will use a ¼point bet as it’s actually 4x¼ point bets on correct scores. I can’t go into too much detail as it’s 2 games but I think covering 2 scores in each game with 4 correct score doubles is worth a small risk.Cheltenham love to score 1 goal doing it in 16/20 home games so 1-0 and 1-1 are my preferred options here.  The Notts Country games is a big battle at the bottom and neither team score that many but Mansfield have put together a decent run away from home and so 1-1 and 1-2 look worth covering. Bet365 give the best odds and if they came in we would make at least 11 points.

++ 4 x Correct Score doubles – Chelt 1-0, 1-1 / Notts Co 1-1, 2-1 @ 7.5, 7 / 7, 11 on Bet365 (4 x ¼pt = 1pt)

The more traditional fare.

Tottenham v Newcastle (prem – sun 3pm local time)

Newcastle beat Fulham last weekend to record their first league win since 15th December. In the 13 matches between the wins they only managed to draw at home to Derby, Bolton and Middlesboro and draw away at Birmingham. They have lost 10 of the 15 away games this season and lost 6 of the last 7. Taking the last 10 away games they have manages to score just 5 goals and shipped 24 goals. With a record like that travelling to White Hart Land should mean goals as no-one has scored more goals than Spurs at home this season, no-one has conceded more either but since Ramos took over at the end of October their record has been very strong at home. They have played 10 home games with Ramos at the helm and won 7, drawn against Man Utd and Chelsea and lost to Birmingham in his second game. They have scored an amazing 32 goals in those 10 games and conceded 14 showing they like a decent margin of victory. After taking all that in it looks like Spurs will win by more than the odd goal so it’s a case of finding the best bet. There are markets like Spurs to score 3 or more but it’s all very tricky so have decide a split stake bet.
++ Winning Margin – Tottenham to win by 2 or more goals
@ 3.1 on Bet365 (½pt)
++ Asian Handicap – Tottenham -0.5, -1 @ 1.8 on Bet365 (½pt)

The more traditional bets.

Chester v Stockport (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)

On a basic level Chester have a home record of W5 D3 L12 and Stockport away are W12 D4 L4 so it looks like a Stockport win 24/40 (60%) so odds of 1.67 but Stockport can be backed at above evens. They have lost their club captain to Swansea but bought in someone else on loan and BBC report Chester have injury problems. Stockport are expected to bring 2,000 fans to this game and they are on form at the moment taking 23 from a possible 30 points in the last 10 games, whereas Chester have managed just 6 of a possible 30. At home only Mansfield are worse than Chester and they have lost 8 of the last 9 games. Stockport have lost just once in the past 17 games and away from home have won 8 and drawn 1 of the last 9 games. The overall picture favours Stockport and recent form makes them seem better than the price on offer.
++ Win Market –
Stockport @ 2.1 on generally (1pt)

Cowdenbeath v Brechin (scots two – sat 3pm local time)

A rare trip up North to Scotland for this bet but it stood out on the AH console. In the last 10 games Brechin have gained as many points as runaway league leaders RossCounty whereas Cowdenbeath have lost 8 of their 10. At home Cowdenbeath have lost 7 of the last 8 games conceding 23 goals scoring just 10. Brechin on the other hand went the first 8 away games of the season without a win only managing 3 of a possible 24 points. Not sure what they found under the Christmas tree but since boxing day have won 5 and drawn to of the 7 away games gaining 17 of the 21 points on offer. The last away game was a 0-0 draw with the league leaders and that was the first time in that 7 game period they have not scored at least 2 goals.
++ Win Market – Brechin @ 2.1 on Tote/Expekt/Betfred (1pt)

4 points bet in total with a possible extra to come with the corners.

Spinner Rinse

A mixture of odds here with Chelsea to beat Middlesboro, Spurs to beat Newcastle (Both Prem), Hamburg to Beat Bielefeld (Germany), Napoli to beat Parma (Italy) and Deportivo La Coruña (Spain).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 10.84 on VCBet

NOTES

Matches will be updated as normal on Monday.

View Article  Round Up (Week 22.5)

After breaking the 20 point barrier we now slipped back under it with yesterdays results. I'll update everything on the site when the ref appointments are released later today. I have done some further analysis below to try and find where mots success has been achieved and will concentrate on those areas until the end of the season.  

SSS Tips
Cheltenham beat Orient 1-0 and although I highlighted it as 1 of 3 possible scores that's no consolation. I do think that in games where under 2.5 looks likely it's better to try and get the score right that back a low odds under 2.5 quote. Hartlepool landed the handicap bet beating Yeovil 2-0 but Macclesfield beat Barnet 3-0 and were leading 2-0 at HT ruining that bet.

Bets 150 Wins 67 (plus 10 void and 6 void/lost), Points 139.5 staked Profit +19.77

NOTES

As mentioned earlier everything will be in and ready once the ref appointments are released. I think there are only 3 games in midweek, which are in Scotland, as it's international week.

ANALYSIS SO FAR

Leagues

Prem - 32 bets / 10.56pts return
Eng Lge 1 - 14 bets / 9.08pts return
Eng Lge 2 - 24 bets / 7.955pts return
Various - 11 bets / 1.8pts return
Serie A - 7 bets / 0.35pts return
Bundesliga - 4 bets / 0.31pts return
Championship - 17 bets / -0.12pts return
Europe - 1 bets / -1pts return
La Liga - 12 bets / -1.425pts return
Scottish - 9 bets / -1.54pts return
Italy - 4 bets / -3pts return
France - 15 bets / -3.2pts return

Type of Bet

Asian Hcap - 49 bets / 7.82pts return
Corners - 19 bets / 7.47pts return
Accumulator - 7 bets / 4.77pts return
Match Bet - 9 bets / 3.025pts return
Half Time - 12 bets / 1.48pts return
Over/Under - 13 bets / 1.205pts return
Draw No Bet - 6 bets / 0.75pts return
HT Score - 2 bets / 0.65pts return
Winning Margin - 5 bets / 0.1pts return
Correct Score - 8 bets / 0pts return
Team Goals - 1 bets / -0.5pts return
Not to score - 1 bets / -1pts return
Win To Nil - 1 bets / -1pts return
HT/FT - 17 bets / -5pts return

Looks like I should stick to the corner and asian handicap/match bets and spend more time looking for these in England!

View Article  Week 22.5 Bets (24.03.08)

Easter Monday used to be a big football day in England but with internationals scheduled for midweek only the two lower divisions play. They have been profitable this season and I am trying to concentrate on them more and more as we come to the end of the season. It may be a bit risky betting on games so close together but only time will tell.

SSS Tips

Cheltenham v Leyton Orient (eng lge 1 – mon 3pm local time)

Looking at this game the likely score looks to be 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 from the correct score chart. I’m going to plump for 1-1 as that has happened in 6 Cheltenham home games and 5 Orient away games which is 11/38 (29%) and should be odds of 3.45 but we can get 7. Cheltenham have scored just 1 goal in 7 of the last 10 away games and for orient away it’s 6 in the last 10 and 1 goal in each of the last 4 away games.
++ Correct Score – 1-1 @ 7 on Bet365 (½ pt)

Hartlepool v Yeovil (eng lge 1 – mon 3pm local time)

Just one point separates these teams and they are 14th and 15th in the division. At home Hartlepool have been strong winning 10/19 home games and 5 of the last 6. In those 5 games they have scored 2, 4, 3, 4 and 4 goals so seem to be on-song at that end of the pitch. Yeovil haven’t won away for 9 games, managing just 4 goals in those 9 games. Hartlepool are a best priced evens on the win market but if you take the AH market -0.5 you can get 2.05 on Bet365 or 2.08 on Pinnacle (I don’t include that when I set the price as not many people will have an account with them but it’s well worth it). Not taking into account recent form the results this season suggest it’s an evens chance but the goals scored lately and the form makes me think it’s better than that.
++ Asian Handicap –
Hartlepool (-0.5) @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)

Macclesfield v Barnet (eng lge 2 – mon 3pm local time)

11/19 Macclesfield home games have been a draw at HT and 11/17 Barney games which is 22/36 (61%) and so odds of 1.64 but this can be backed at 2.2. 7 of the last 10 Macclesfield home games have been a HT draw and 5 of the last 10 Barnet games showing this pattern is current and worth a risk
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.2 on Bet365 (1pt)

2½ points staked

NOTES

I’m a bit behind updating games but will rectify that later today and tomorrow. A few midweek games elsewhere but unlikely to be a bet.
View Article  Round Up (Week 22)

Managed the point needed to pass the 20 point mark which was pleasing. Very little time this weekend as there's more fixtures on Monday in league 1 and 2 which have proved fruitful so far.  

SSS Tips
Newcastle scored early against Fulham and this may have affected their corner count but with a late corner they managed a 2 point margin so the bet was half loss/half void. Middlesborough beat Derby 1-0 and that was also the HT score so that bet was landed but Stoke only managed a draw with Blackpool so that one was a loser. Sampdoria drew with Cagliari after being down 1-0 at HT and Cagliari look worth keeping an eye on. The two AH bets were both winners as Brighton beat Swindon 2-1 and Grimsby beat Mansfield by the same score.

Bets 147 Wins 66 (plus 10 void and 6 void/lost), Points 137 staked Profit +20.22

Spinner Rinse
Without Lyon playing we have Fiorentina and Reading as winners but Sevilla and Sampdoria let it down. Same old story.

Accumulators 22, Winners 1, Profit -14.49

NOTES

Saturdays games all in except for the Spain. All the English games for Monday are in and ready and everything from the weekend will be updated Monday and the rest Tuesday. Will look through the games later and hope to find a few bets for tomorrow.

View Article  Week 22 Bets (22.03.08)

SSS Tips

Be nice if we could break the 20 point barrier this weekend. There were a few games tonight that I thought may have been worth betting but didn’t think I was fair to put them up as bets on such short notice. Doncaster to win at Yeovil looks good and I though Northampton would not lose to Forest and Peterborough look very good value at MK Dons and I’m betting them to win 2-1.

In Spain there’s a huge game featuring Sevilla and Atletico Madrid on Saturday night in the battle for 4th place. Next week Sevilla go to Real Madrid and Atletico to Villareal so whoever loses on Saturday could lose 2 on the bounce and be right out of it. Personally, I think Sevilla will do it but I couldn’t make a case with the stats and the odds weren’t good enough.

First up a corner bet.

Newcastle v Fulham (prem sat 3pm local time)

Only one team other than the big 4 averages more than 7 corners per game at home and that’s Newcastle. Fulham are the visitors and away from home they average just 4.1 corners which is the equal 5th lowest. The handicap is set at -2, -2.5 for Newcastle and I think they should make this. In the 4 home games since Keegan took the reigns they have managed 41 corners and beaten that handicap each time. If we look at the 2.5 handicap they would have won this 7 and lost it 8 times which doesn’t look good but the recent factors makes me think they can make this as well as the fact Fulham would have lost that handicap 9/14 times this season away. Who knows how Newcastle will play if they take the lead in the match but you have to ignore that.
++ Asian Handicap Corners –
Newcastle (-2, -2.5) @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

I’ll persist with a couple of bets revolving around half time as I think there is value there and I think it’s hard for bookmakers to price.

Middlesbrough v Derby (prem – sat 3pm local time)

You have to expect Boro to win this game but at odds below 1.5 it’s not worth a bet but looking at HT I think there might be a value bet. Boro have led at HT in 6/14 games and it’s been a 1-0 lead in 5 of those and 3 of those 1-0’s were in the past 4 matches. In 8/14 home matches they have scored 1 goal by HT and in 5 of the last 7. Derby have been losing at HT in 7/15 away matches and although 1-0 has not been a popular score they themselves have only scored in the first half in 2/15 away games, so 13/15 times have been scoreless. These stats I think make a decent case for the score being 1-0 and when you see odds 3.2-3.3 it seems worth a small risk.
++ Half Time Score – 1-0@ 3.3 on Paddy Power (½pt)

Sampdoria v Cagliari (italy – sat 3pm local time)

Have backed both these sides in the past few weeks and although Samp let us down before I hope they can redeem themselves. The HT draw looks a good bet here as 8/14 Sampdoria home games and 8/14 Cagliari away games have gone that way. Cagliari have re-discovered good home form but away remain poor. Samp are strong at home and I would expect them to win this game and think the HT/FT bet of draw/Sampdoria looks worth another small bet. Of the 8 games Sampdoria have draw at HT they have only gone on to win 2 but both those were in the last 4 games. Cagliari lost 6 of the 8 games they were drawing at HT so taking them both we have odds of 8/28 (29%) which should be odds of 3.5 but 4.5 is available the fact that Samp should win and a HT draw happens 57% of the time for each team this looks good.
++ Half Time/Full Time – Draw/Sampdoria @ 4.5 on Blue Sq/Ladbrokes (½pt)

Before we get to the more traditional bets there’s one more that stuck out to me.

Stoke v Blackpool (eng champ – sat 3pm local time)

Stoke come into this game unbeaten in 11 home games with 8 wins in that period and host Blackpool with 4 losses in the last 6 away games. Looking at the AH console the Home +1 bars are huge and it seems that 8/19 Stoke home games have finished with them winning by 1 goal and it’s the same 8/19 record for Blackpool away for losing by 1 goal. That’s 42% which should be odds of 2.375 but 3.6 is available and I fancy the chances with that.
++ Winning Margin – Stoke to win by 1 goal @ 3.6 on Bet365 (1pt)
 

A couple of the more traditional bets.

Brighton v Swindon (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

Brighton are unbeaten at home in 9 games, winning 6 of those, and host Swindon who have only 1 win in 8 on the road and 3 losses in the last 4 games. I would hope Brighton can keep up their home record and if you look at all their home games they have won 10/19 and Swindon have lost 8/17 away. Those figures indicate Brighton have an evens chance of winning and that’s the odds available, although it can be beaten on the AH. With the recent form I make the chance above evens Brighton are 3 points off the playoffs with all to play for while Swindon mid-table with very little to play for. 
++ Asian Handicap –
Brighton -0.5 @ 2.03 on Bet365 (1pt) (also 2.08 CanBet & 2.05 Pinnacle)

Mansfield v Grimsby  (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)

Mansfield won away at Bradford last weekend to break a streak of 6 games without a win. They are second from bottom and at home it is where they have really struggled this season and have the worst home record in the league. You have to go back 10 games to find their last home wins and 8 of the 9 games in between have been losses. Grimsby lost away at 4th place Darlington in their last match but prior to that had gone 10 away matches without defeat. After losing 6 of their first 8 away games it’s been just that 1 defeat in the last 11. I would think they can win but I also think it’s safer to bet on them not to lose using the AH (0) or draw no bet. Taking both teams for the whole season you would win on Grimsby (0) 19/30 times with 7 voids and that’s odds of 1.58. Pinnacle offer 2.01 but the major firms also have prices close to evens and it has to be snapped up.
++ Asian Handicap –
Grimsby (0) @ 1.98 on Bet365/Ladbrokes (1pt)

5 points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

Reading to beat Brum (Prem), Lyon to beat PSG (France), Sevilla to beat Atletico (Spain),  Fiorentina to beat Lazio and Sampdoria to beat Cagliari (both Italy).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 19.24 on Expekt or 16.02 on Sporting Odds

NOTES

With a bumper set of fixtures I will update as much as I can on Saturday night. Then if there are more bets for Monday I’ll post them on Sunday at some stage.
View Article  Round Up (Week 21.5)

All in all turned out to be a decent midweek but was very close to being massive. I mentioned the correct score bet but it still rankles slightly from yesterday. Correct score bets are seen to be a quick way to the poor house as the bookies are able to make such a large overound but this has reduced with betfair and it's a market I have always liked as it has big rewards.  

SSS Tips
So on Tuesday night as mentioned numerous times already Hull won 3-1 and the 3rd goal in the 87th minute made our bet a loser. Ross County and Brechin drew 0-0 so our stake was returned there. On Wednesday night Cagliari did Atalanta 1-0 and was very pleased with that bet and I would think it's the kind of bet to look for as the season winds down. A team with a lot to play for on form against a team with nothing to play for. Italy also has some very fishy results come the end of the season and the odds compilers are wise to this and you get prices that look crazy on paper. We got a lump of luck back with the final bet on the corners as there were only 2 corners in the first half but 10 second half corners landed the bet and the last one was in stoppage time. Have to acknowledge the luck when it comes!

Bets 141 Wins 63 (plus 10 void and 5 void/lost), Points 132 staked Profit +19.06

NOTES

I will update the remaining midweek matches mid-morning on Thursday and then will crack on with the weekend bets.

View Article  Week 21.5 Bets (19.03.08) Part II

Will round up the midweek games fully tomorrow but was very close to a big boost last night. Hull scored a 3rd goal in the 87th minute to win 3-1, and if it had stayed 2-1 we would have netted 4 points on the night. A couple of bets for tonight.

SSS Tips

Tottenham v Chelsea (eng prem – wed 8pm local time)

It’s the corners market here as the line seems to be 11 and taking the asian option on Bet365 I think we have a good chance. 11 corners gives a void bet so we can only lose on 10 or less and for Spurs that would have happened in only 4/13 home games and for Chelsea away in 6/15. Taking both teams into account you would have a winner 17/28 times (61%) which is odds of 1.65. The angle that I think swings this most in our favour is the actual team average. Spurs average 7.4 at home and Chelsea average 6.2 away so you have 13.6 in total and I would hope we can beat the over 11 line.
++ Asian Total Corners – Over 11 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

Cagliari v Atalanta (italy – wed 8:30pm local time)

Cagliari have won only 5 times at home this year but 4 of those came in the last 5 games and they are unbeaten in those 5. They are bottom of the league in Italy but a win could move them out of the relegation zone. In the first 19 games they managed just 10 points but have taken 14 from the last 9 games. Atalanta are in the top half of the table and heading towards a fairly meaningless end of the season. Away from home they have lost 6 of the last 8 games after starting the season well away from home with just one defeat in the first 6. In the past few season Cagliari have been very strong at home and I would think they may get back to that in the remaining home games with so much to play for.
++ Win Market –
Cagliari @ 2.5 on Bet365/Skybet (1pt)

2 points staked

NOTES

All games will be updated Thursday morning and the midweek bets rounded up.

View Article  Week 21.5 Bets (18.03.08) Part I

I have a couple of bets for tonight which I’ll post up now. They are both longish odds but worth a small bet and there may be another bet tomorrow but I will look through the Italian and Premier league games properly later.

SSS Tips

Colchester v Hull (eng champ – tue 7:45pm local time)

Colchester haven’t won in the last 8 games and have only won once in the last 13 home matches. Hull arrive with 4 wins in the last 6 and although they have lost their last 2 away games they were more difficult than this one being at Cardiff and BristolCity. If Hull are to win it is most likely they will only win by 1 goal as all 5 away wins have come by this margin and of Colchester’s 8 home defeats all but 1 have been by 1 goal. I was thinking winning margin by 1 but the prospect of a 1-1 draw looms large so I would think a correct score double like at the weekend.
++ Correct Score – 1-1 @ 7 on Bet365/Blue Sq (½pt)
++ Correct Score – 1-2 @ 10 on William Hill (½pt)

RossCounty v Brechin (scots lge 2 – tue 7:45pm local time)

I may be mad betting against a team 12 points clear at the top of the league but Brechin seem to be on a roll away from home and are worth ½pt. it took Brechin 8 away games to register their first away win but since that time they have won 5/6 and are undefeated in 7 away games. They travel to RossCounty who I hope may be winding down a bit and are also from the BBC site I noticed  ‘In-form goalscorer Andrew Barrowman also sits out through suspension’. They lost their last home game to Ayr and who are below Brechin and the previous 2 matches this season have been close finishing 2-1 to RossCounty on each occasion. I’d like Brechin on the AH but the line is +0.5, +1 and really I’d rather +1 so will take draw no bet for the odds.
++ Draw No Bet – Brechin @ 4 on Sporting Bet (½pt)

1½ points staked

NOTES

Games will be updated the following morning as normal and like I say there may be an extra bet on the corners.

View Article  Round Up (Week 21)

A weekend that promised a lot early on but only delivered a small profit. Profit is profit though and it sure beats losing but after landing the long odds correct score bet it would have been nice to get something else. France is off te menu for a while after this weekend! 

In Spain Barcelona drew with Almeria and Real Madrid lost again. It's a shame all the trailing teams have been so inconsistent as they could have made a decent fist of the season.  

SSS Tips
Man Utd struggled against Derby which you can't account for and that meant the corner bet was always in trouble. As it was the racked up 16 between the two teams so that was a loser. Cheltenham beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 so the 7/1 part of the bet won giving 3pts profit when we take off the 1/2point on 1-1. Marseille beat Lens 2-1 and were leading 2-0 at HT and Sampdoria won 3-1 but all the goals came in the 2nd half so both these were losers. Leverkusen beat Nurnberg 4-1 which was very pleasing and I'll give Germany more attention now and the final bet was Almeria v Barcelona which finished as a draw and so a void bet. As we only had 2 winners from 7 it's a bonus to turn a profit.

Bets 133 Wins 60 (plus 8 void and 5 void/lost, Points 126 staked Profit +17.65

Spinner Rinse
Just St Etienne in France failed to deliver as they drew 0-0.

Accumulators 21, Winners 1, Profit -13.49

NOTES

All the weekend results are updated. There's about 7 games in England in midweek, a few in Scotland and a full program in Italy which I'll look at later. Will post any bets up on Tuesday morning and then as it's Easter next weekend there will be a bumper card over the 4 days in England!

View Article  Week 21 Bets (15.03.08)

SSS Tips

A nice midweek and hopefully we can build on that and get March into profit. A full program to choose from and armed with lessons learnt from previous weeks.

After Barcelona losing to Villareal last weekend I could see them struggling down in Almeria too and I would have fancied any English team against them in the champions league draw..

First up a corner bet.

Derby v Manchester Utd (prem sat 3pm local time)

9/14 Derby home games have been 10 or under and 8/14 United away games. The line is 11, 10.5 on the total asian so the extra security of 11 means this was a full loser for Derby at home and Man Utd away 4 times each. Liverpool and Chelsea have visited Derby this season and the corner counts were 9 and 5 respectively. You would expect Man Utd to win this game pretty easily and get a few goals up and pass the ball around meaning not many corners.
++ Asian Total Corners - Under 10.5,11 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Am trying a correct score bet this week and another HT result bet from low-scoring France.

Cheltenham v Bristol Rovers (div 1 – sat 3pm local time)

The under market on this stands out with 14/18 Cheltenham home games being under 2.5 and 13/16 Bristol Rovers away games. The odds on it are 1.62 which isn’t that good but looking on the correct score chart it seems 12/18 Cheltenham home games have been 1-0 or 1-1 so these look good options. In fact in 8 of the last 11 games Cheltenham have scored exactly 1 goal. Half of Bristol Rovers away games have featured less than 2 goals so 1-0 could be a good option but Rovers have been on a decent run and I think it’s worth backing 1-1 as well.
++ Correct Score – 1-0 @ 8 on Stan James/Ladbrokes/Bet Direct (½pt)

++ Correct Score – 1-1 @ 7 on Bet365 (½pt)

Lens v Marseille (france – sun 8:55pm local time)

This is the late game on Sunday night so will keep interest running all weekend. It’s a HT draw we are looking for here as 10/14 Lens home games and 9/14 Marseille away games have been drawn at HT. 19/28 (68%) should be odds of 1.47 but evens is available. Looking at recent games 6 of the last 8 Lens games were HT draws and 6 of the last 9 Marseille.
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2 on Betfred/Coral (1pt)

Sampdoria v Catania Calcio (italy – sun 3pm local time)

Catania come into this game with 8 consecutive away losses, the worst away record and the worst form over the last 10 games in the league. Only Inter, Roma and Juve have a better home record than Sampdoria. This should be a comfortable win but the odds of 1.7 don’t appeal too much (will look to see if anything better is available on betfair as this really does look solid). In 6/13 Sampdoria home games they have led at HT and gone on to win and in 8/14 Catania away games they have been  losing at HT and lost. 14/27 (52%) is odds of 1.92 so the 2.6 offered by William Hill should be snapped up.
++ HT/FT – Sampdoria/Sampdoria @ 2.6 on William Hill (1pt)
 

A couple of the more traditional bets.

Bayer Leverkusen v Nurnberg (germany – sun 5pm local time)

Like the Sampdoria game above this one really does look a home banker. Leverkuse lie 4th and have the 2nd best form in the last 10 games after Bayern Munchen. At home they’ve won 7 of 11 games and 5 of the last 6. Nurnberg lie 3rd from bottom and arrive on the back of 8 consecutive away defeats. You have to expect Leverkusen to win so then it’s a case of finding the value. Using the AH console if you look at a line of Leverkusen -1 you can see that they would win this 6/10 times with 1 draw and Nurnberg would have lost it 5/8 with 4 draws. As this bet is available at above evens you can see it’s good value. I was tempted by Leverkusen to win by 2 goals or more but this AH bet seems to have a much lower chance of losing.
++ Asian Handicap – Bayer
Leverkusen -1 @ 2.06 on Ladbrokes (1pt)

Almeria v Barcelona (spain – sun 7pm local time)

Real Madrid, Sevilla and Espanyol have all been beaten at Almeria this season who have only lost once in the last 9 home games and won 6 of the last 8. Barcelona arrive on the back of two straight defeats, both of which occurred with Messi out of the starting line up and he will be missed again. They can’t quite get the balance right up front and will not relish travelling diagonally across the whole of Spain to visit Andalusia’s most eastern capital. Away from campnou they have only managed 4 wins in 13 games. Almeria might not win, although odds of 4.8 look great value, so the draw no bet price of 3.75 looks well worth it. A winner in 7/11 Almeria home games (3 draws) and a winner in 3/7 Barcelona away games (6 draws)
++ Draw No Bet –
Almeria -1 @ 3.75 on Skybet (½pt)

5½ points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

Another safish accu here with QPR to beat Scunthorpe (championship), Hibs to beat Kilmarnock (scots), St Etienne to beat Toulose (france), Sampdoria to beat Catania (italy) and Bayer Leverkusen to Nurnberg (germany).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 13.15 on bet365

NOTES

All weekend games will be updated on Monday.
View Article  Round Up (Week 20.5)

A very pleasing midweek with 4/5 wins and over 3 points profit. The month started badly and have just about clawed back the losses from that first weekend and back to a nice figure again. 25 points is a target I set myself for the season recently and hopefully we can get past the 20 barrier some time this month. I looked through past results and it's been the englsih leagues (bar the championship where I am in a negative) that has provided the lions share of both the bets and profits. I will concentrate slightly more on these now to the end of the season and only bet the other leagues if it really stands out.

SSS Tips
Doncaster landed the HT/FT bet by leading 1-0 at HT and going on to win 2-1. Carlisle were winning 2-0 before Luton snatched one back and was happy to see that finish 2-1 and the winning margin bet come in. In league 2 Hereford won 1-0 at Mansfield but our only loser was in France where Lille led 1-0 at HT and went on to win 2-1. The final bet was the corner bet and Villa and Middleboro both had 4 corners so comfortably under the 12 quoted.

Bets 129 Wins 59 (plus 8 void and 5 void/lost, Points 123 staked Profit +16.65

NOTES

Everything is in for the weekend including all referees. No time to rest and will start looking at them again tonight.

View Article  Extra Week 20.5 Bet

A nice midweek so far as we made up some of the recent losses with 3 of 4 winners. I am very behind today and unlikely to be able to update the site till the morning. There is one more bet for the midweek games below.

SSS Tips