by
Admin
on Fri 21 Mar 2008 03:08 PM GMT
SSS Tips
Be nice if we could break the 20 point barrier this weekend. There were a few games tonight that I thought may have been worth betting but didn’t think I was fair to put them up as bets on such short notice. Doncaster to win at Yeovil looks good and I though Northampton would not lose to Forest and Peterborough look very good value at MK Dons and I’m betting them to win 2-1.
In Spain there’s a huge game featuring Sevilla and Atletico Madrid on Saturday night in the battle for 4th place. Next week Sevilla go to Real Madrid and Atletico to Villareal so whoever loses on Saturday could lose 2 on the bounce and be right out of it. Personally, I think Sevilla will do it but I couldn’t make a case with the stats and the odds weren’t good enough.
First up a corner bet.
Newcastle v Fulham (prem sat 3pm local time)
Only one team other than the big 4 averages more than 7 corners per game at home and that’s Newcastle. Fulham are the visitors and away from home they average just 4.1 corners which is the equal 5th lowest. The handicap is set at -2, -2.5 for Newcastle and I think they should make this. In the 4 home games since Keegan took the reigns they have managed 41 corners and beaten that handicap each time. If we look at the 2.5 handicap they would have won this 7 and lost it 8 times which doesn’t look good but the recent factors makes me think they can make this as well as the fact Fulham would have lost that handicap 9/14 times this season away. Who knows how Newcastle will play if they take the lead in the match but you have to ignore that.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Newcastle (-2, -2.5) @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)
I’ll persist with a couple of bets revolving around half time as I think there is value there and I think it’s hard for bookmakers to price.
Middlesbrough v Derby (prem – sat 3pm local time)
You have to expect Boro to win this game but at odds below 1.5 it’s not worth a bet but looking at HT I think there might be a value bet. Boro have led at HT in 6/14 games and it’s been a 1-0 lead in 5 of those and 3 of those 1-0’s were in the past 4 matches. In 8/14 home matches they have scored 1 goal by HT and in 5 of the last 7. Derby have been losing at HT in 7/15 away matches and although 1-0 has not been a popular score they themselves have only scored in the first half in 2/15 away games, so 13/15 times have been scoreless. These stats I think make a decent case for the score being 1-0 and when you see odds 3.2-3.3 it seems worth a small risk.
++ Half Time Score – 1-0@ 3.3 on Paddy Power (½pt)
Sampdoria v Cagliari (italy – sat 3pm local time)
Have backed both these sides in the past few weeks and although Samp let us down before I hope they can redeem themselves. The HT draw looks a good bet here as 8/14 Sampdoria home games and 8/14 Cagliari away games have gone that way. Cagliari have re-discovered good home form but away remain poor. Samp are strong at home and I would expect them to win this game and think the HT/FT bet of draw/Sampdoria looks worth another small bet. Of the 8 games Sampdoria have draw at HT they have only gone on to win 2 but both those were in the last 4 games. Cagliari lost 6 of the 8 games they were drawing at HT so taking them both we have odds of 8/28 (29%) which should be odds of 3.5 but 4.5 is available the fact that Samp should win and a HT draw happens 57% of the time for each team this looks good.
++ Half Time/Full Time – Draw/Sampdoria @ 4.5 on Blue Sq/Ladbrokes (½pt)
Before we get to the more traditional bets there’s one more that stuck out to me.
Stoke v Blackpool (eng champ – sat 3pm local time)
Stoke come into this game unbeaten in 11 home games with 8 wins in that period and host Blackpool with 4 losses in the last 6 away games. Looking at the AH console the Home +1 bars are huge and it seems that 8/19 Stoke home games have finished with them winning by 1 goal and it’s the same 8/19 record for Blackpool away for losing by 1 goal. That’s 42% which should be odds of 2.375 but 3.6 is available and I fancy the chances with that.
++ Winning Margin – Stoke to win by 1 goal @ 3.6 on Bet365 (1pt)
A couple of the more traditional bets.
Brighton v Swindon (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)
Brighton are unbeaten at home in 9 games, winning 6 of those, and host Swindon who have only 1 win in 8 on the road and 3 losses in the last 4 games. I would hope Brighton can keep up their home record and if you look at all their home games they have won 10/19 and Swindon have lost 8/17 away. Those figures indicate Brighton have an evens chance of winning and that’s the odds available, although it can be beaten on the AH. With the recent form I make the chance above evens Brighton are 3 points off the playoffs with all to play for while Swindon mid-table with very little to play for.
++ Asian Handicap – Brighton -0.5 @ 2.03 on Bet365 (1pt) (also 2.08 CanBet & 2.05 Pinnacle)
Mansfield v Grimsby (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)
Mansfield won away at Bradford last weekend to break a streak of 6 games without a win. They are second from bottom and at home it is where they have really struggled this season and have the worst home record in the league. You have to go back 10 games to find their last home wins and 8 of the 9 games in between have been losses. Grimsby lost away at 4th place Darlington in their last match but prior to that had gone 10 away matches without defeat. After losing 6 of their first 8 away games it’s been just that 1 defeat in the last 11. I would think they can win but I also think it’s safer to bet on them not to lose using the AH (0) or draw no bet. Taking both teams for the whole season you would win on Grimsby (0) 19/30 times with 7 voids and that’s odds of 1.58. Pinnacle offer 2.01 but the major firms also have prices close to evens and it has to be snapped up.
++ Asian Handicap – Grimsby (0) @ 1.98 on Bet365/Ladbrokes (1pt)
5 points bet in total
Spinner Rinse
Reading to beat Brum (Prem), Lyon to beat PSG (France), Sevilla to beat Atletico (Spain), Fiorentina to beat Lazio and Sampdoria to beat Cagliari (both Italy).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 19.24 on Expekt or 16.02 on Sporting Odds
NOTES
With a bumper set of fixtures I will update as much as I can on Saturday night. Then if there are more bets for Monday I’ll post them on Sunday at some stage.