SSS Tips

A new month starts so hopefully we can continue in good form. A full program for the first time in a while and a variety of bets again although the half time ones seem to feature more than normal. Overall 8 bets which I hope isn't too many.

Interesting games in Spain this weekend and it’s not often you get the chance to back Real Madrid and Barcelona in a double at nearly 3/1. Atletico Madrid have been poor of late and if Simao still isn’t back I would fancy Barcelona to win that one.

First up a corner bet.

Middlesbrough v Reading

This looks like an overs on the corner front. Craven Cottage and the Madjeski are the only two grounds that have a higher corner average than the Riverside and only Tottenham, Chelsea and Man Utd average more corners at home than Boro. Away from home Reading average more corners than any other team with 6.9 and also concede more than anyone else with 7.9 giving a whopping average of 14.8 corners in their away games. Boro at home and Reading away combine for an average of 13.8 corners so taking the asian total with the safety of net of 12 corners looks good.
++ Asian Total Corners - Over 12 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

I’ll persist once more with an over under short odds double.

St Etienne v Nice (france – sun 6pm local time)/Bochum v Bayer Leverkusen (germany – sun 5pm local time)

St Etienne v Nice you have 9/12 St Etienne home games under 2.5 and an amazing 12/13 Nice away games under. Together it’s 21/25 (84%) which is odds of 1.19 but can be backed at over 1.55. Bochum have 9/10 home games over 2.5 and Leverkusen have 8/13 away games which gives 17/23 (74%) so odds of 1.35 but is available at above 1.67. I couldn’t get my odds comparison site to do both these games but think I have still found the best odds on Bet365.
++ Double – St Et v Nice Under 2.5/Bochum v Leverkusen Over 2.5 @ 2.61 on Bet365 (1pt)

I think I have found some value in HT bets. I may have gone half time mad this week but only time will tell.

Middlesbrough v Reading (eng prem – sat 3pm local time)

Got this game for the corner bet but now there’s something else. In the console you can see that Reading are very poor at HT, losing 9/13, and Middlesboro pretty decent, being ahead 6/13. Digging a bit deeper it seems that 1-0 is pretty popular and so in all home games boro have led 1-0 at HT 5 times and 4 of those were in the last 6 games. 7 times Reading have been behind 1-0 at the break and 4 of the last 6 so overall we get 12/25 (48%) which is odds of 2.1 so the 3.75 (Bet365/Paddy Power) on offer looks good value. This was available earlier at 4 on Sporting Odds so is worth checking when they put the market back up. Betfair looks to have 4 as well.
++ Half Time Score – 1-0 @ 3.75 on Bet365/Paddy Power (½pt)

Cardiff v Leicester (eng champ – sat 3pm local time)

Both the half time pie charts really stand out here with Cardiff leading at home 9/16 times and Leicester losing away in 10/17 games. Also in the last 5 games Cardiff had led in 4 and Leicester have lost in 4. Hopefully that pattern will continue as adding the two up you get 19/33 (58%) chance which is odds of 1.74 and as 2.5 and above is widely available it looks good value.
++ Half Time - Cardiff @ 2.625 on Betfred (1pt)

Villareal v Osasuna (spain – sat 5pm local time)

Last season this both the fixtures between these two ended up 4-1 to the away team. The HT draw looks good value here as 7/13 Villareal home games have been a HT draw and 8/12 Osasuna away games. That’s 15/25 (60%) and should be odds of 1.67 but 2.25 is available (and higher on betfair). I will risk half a point on that and another half that Villareal then go on to win the game as 4 of the 7 Villareal HT draws and and 6 of the 8 Osasuna HT draws have ended with a home win. That’s 10/25 (40%) so odds of 2.5 but can be backed at 4.5.
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.25 on Bet365/Blue Sq/Coral (½pt)
++ HT/FT – Draw/Villareal @ 4.5 on Sporting Bet/Blue Sq/Skybet/Ladbrokes (½pt)  

A different one here.

Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund (germany – sat 3:30pm local time)

There was quite a lot about this game that looked worth a bet. Over 2.5, Bremen to be winning at HT amongst others but I am going for something new. In the correct score chart I noticed a big blue bar in the Other category which means Bremen like a goal. Delving deeper I found that Bremen have scored 3 or more in 5/11 home games and Dortmund have conceded 3 or more in 5/11 away games. Both these records are a 45% chance so should be odds of 2.2. I then found Bet365 offerring 4.33 on ‘3 Star Werder Bremen-Werder Bremen To Score 3 Or More’. Looks worth half a point.
++ Match Specials - 3 Star Werder Bremen To Score 3 Or More @ 4.33 on Bet365 (½pt)

More traditional.

Lorient v Nancy (france – sat 8pm local time)

Lorient are unbeaten in 9 at home and have won 6 of the last 7. Nancy are above them in 3^rd place but really this is due to their strong home form. Away from home they have W2 D7 L4 so although they haven’t lost many I think they could in this game. It’s 9 games since they won away and although they have drawn 3 of the last 5 away they have failed to score in any of those games. Lorient have score in 10/13 home games and although they don’t score a lot I would think they can score in this game and 1 goal might be enough. The price of 2.4 represents value for me on the win but to be safe I’ll side the Asian handicap of 0, -0.5 as it’s still above evens.
++ Asian Handicap - Lorient 0, -0.5 @ 2.075 on Bet365 (1pt)

Recreativo Huelva v Real Madrid (spain – sat 8pm local time)

So let’s see, we have the league leaders away, who have the best away record in the league, against a team 2 points above the relegation zone and you can back them at evens hmmmmm. Real Madrid have struggled lately but I am prepared to wager that it won’t continue. Pepe and Robinho were back training with the squad and even though they have a big game against Roma in the week I think they will have a strong team out for this game as they need a win. I can’t really use stats to back this price up but it just seems too high and a bit of an overreaction to the recent slump. The AH market -0.5 gives a much better price than the win.
++ Asian Handicap – Real Madrid -0.5 @ 1.975 on Bet365 (1pt)

7 points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

Going for some shorter odds this week in Norwich to beat Blackpool and Cardiff to beat Leicester in the Championship, Northampton to beat Crewe in League 1, Werder Bremen to beat Dortmund in Germany and Real Madrid to win at Recreativo in Spain.
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 21.05 on bet365

NOTES

I am pretty sure there will also be a bet on Monday night involving the Forest v Carlisle game too so will update all games on Monday and post that bet up if it looks good.

A bit of a disappointing end to what has been a fantastic month. February has made a big difference to the total and hopefully we can now continue this on to March. We had 32 bets in February with 17 winners, 2 void bets and 2 half void/half loss and made +8.55 points profit, including a midweek full house. The full season stats are below the SSS analysis.

SSS Tips
The corner bet on Monday was a bit of a saviour as without that the midweek might have been a poor one. Man City got just 4 corners so the under 6 bet was landed and Paddy Power had once again overpriced this market. Accrington managed a win and beat Brentford 1-0 which lost us the match bet. AC Milan drew 1-1 at Catania and after scoring in the second half it woudln't have been too hopeful for them to hold out to 1-0 but it wasn't to be. They were free scoring earlier in the season but really seemed to have tightened up now and might be worth looking at again for low scoring games, especially if Kaka is injured.

Bets 109 Wins 51 (plus 7 void and 4 void/loss), Points staked 107 Profit +17.17

SSS Tips

A nice winner on the corner bet last night as Man City managed only 4. Between them they managed 11 which was higher than I thought they would get so glad I plumped for that bet. I am aware that people don’t have betting accounts with all bookmakers so am not sure quite how fair it is to pick a bet that only one bookmaker offers. Any comments would be appreciated.

On to the rest of the midweek games and I have found it very hard to find bets. I went through all the games twice and think have found some but will play to small stakes.

Accrington Stanley v Brentford (eng lge 2 – tue 7:45pm local time)

I have opposed Accrington at home recently and was unsure about doing it again because of possible Brentford injuries but really it looks too good to turn down. Accrington have lost 11/15 matches at home this season which is more than anyone else. In their last 10 matches they have lost 8 and it could have been worse if they hadn’t played Chester twice in that period as they managed a draw and a win against them. They’ve lost 5 of the last 6 at home and in the last ten games (home and away) have the worst record in the league. Brentford are the visitors and they have the best record in the last 10 games (W7 D2 L1) with their only loss last weekend at Chesterfield. Before that they’d won 5/6 away and had been on a great run of form taking them out of the relegation zone and up the table. They had to lose at some stage and just hope last weekend was a blip and Accrington are really in trouble at the moment. You can get 2.4 on Betfair or a best priced 2.25 elsewhere.
++ Brentford to win @ 2.25 on expect/Bet Direct/Stan James (1pt)

Catania v Milan (serie A – wed 8:30pm local time)

Originally I liked the under 2.5 goals bet in this game but when I looked in more detail there was another bet I liked which is Milan to win 1-0. 3/12 Milan away games have ended with a 1-0 victory and it’s a scoreline they are famous for. Their last 5 away games have ended 0-0, 0-1, 0-1, 2-1 and 0-1 so they are getting into the groove. You have to go back 7 away games to find the last time they scored more than 1 goal and they have kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 5. Catania have scored 11 goals in 11 games at home but have only scored 2 goals in their last 6 home and away games. A bit of classic Milan and this bet could be landed. It’s available at 7.2 on betfair.
++ Correct Score – 0-1 @ 6.5 on Bet365/WHill/VC/SportingBet (½pt)

1½ points staked

NOTES

SSS Tips

I’ll have to do this in two parts as there is a bet tonight that I want to get on but haven’t had enough time to look at the rest. It’s a corner bet and the good thing about live premiership games is that a number of other bookies play the corner market and often they aren’t quite as accurate I bet365 seem to be.

ManCity v Everton (eng prem – mon 8pm local time)

ManchesterCity average under 4 corners per game at home and are the only team to do so. The average is 3.9 is tiny and to put this into perspective the next 3 teams are Derby with 4.3, Wigan with 4.9 and then Liverpool with 5.3. Every other team averages over 6 corners at home. Away from home Everton have the fifth lowest average number of corners and this game looks to have a low corner count written all over it. As it’s a live game there’s such a choice of bets and would have bet the under 11 quote which available up to evens without hesitation but found something else. Paddy Power have a total corners bet with a nice price which is ManCity under 6 corners at 10/11. In their 13 home games they’ve beaten this just twice (6 twice and 8 twice) so it looks good value, especially taken with their average.
++ Number of Team Corners – Man City Under 6 Corners @ 1.91 on Paddy Power (1pt)

NOTES

All the midweek games are ready in the console and each morning I should be able to update the games from the night before.

A pleasing weekend with 4/6 bets winning and a profit of +3.27 points. February has been a very good month and there are plenty of games this week so might be the odd bet before the month is out. This weekend was most impressed with Sevilla at home to Zaragoza. I know Zaragoza are weak on the road but they hammered them in the first half and Luis Fabiano must be the most in form striker in Europe. I fancy them to overcome Fenerbahce in the champions league and then will be very hard to beat.

SSS Tips
We went for the over corners quote in the Reading v Aston Villa game and that was comfortable as they managed 18 and all we needed was 12. Darlington beat Bury 2-1 and were leading 1-0 at HT after scoring in the sixth minutes so that bet was landed. Nancy and Lens didn't manage their HT draw though as Lens scored 5 minutes before the break. Mansfield v Chester finished 1-3 so we got the over 2.5 goals right and then in the same division Stockport won 2-0 at Accrington. Valenciennes were the big disappointment as they didn't even win after conceding a goal in the first minute.

Bets 106 Wins 50 (plus 7 void and 4 void/loss), Points staked 104.5 Profit +17.76

SSS Tips

Well another weekend is here and hope the recent run of form can continue. A variety of bets this weekend and would have liked to have bet on both Sevilla and Getafe in Spain but couldn’t get an angle.

First up a corner bet.

Reading v Aston Vill (eng prem – sun 12:30pm local time)

8/13 Reading home games have been over 12 corners and the Madjeski is equal 2nd in highest corner average this season. Villa arrive and the only team to average a higher match corner average on the road is Reading. Villa games average 13.3 away and 8/12 have been more than 12 corners. With Readings average at home of 12.2 and 8/13 being more than 12 you would be entitled to expect quite a few here. It's a live game so there's many markets on offer. You can get evens on over 12 but we can play a little safer with the over 11 market and still get good odds.
++ Total Corners - Over 11 @ 1.91 on Stan James (1pt)

A couple of half time bets and then an over/under.

Bury v Darlington (eng div 2 – sat 3pm local time)

The console showed up shows up the large amount of games that Darlington have been leading at HT when away as well as the amount Bury have been losing. Bury have changed their manager and although they have a WDW record in the last 3 games they have been losing at HT in each of them only to come back. Overall they have been down at HT 9/16 at home and couple with the fact Darlington have led 10/16 when away we have 19/32 (59%) so odds of 1.69 but can be backed at 2.95 on expext or 2.88 generally.
++ Half Time - Darlington @ 2.88 on general (1pt)

Nancy v Lens (france ligue 1 – sat 8pm local time)

We got one of these French half time draws right last week and I’m prepared to risk it again. 7/12 Nancy home games have been a draw at HT and 8/12 for Lens away. All the last 5 Nancy home games have been a draw at HT (all 0-0) and 5 of the last 7 Lens away games. 15/24 (62%) is a 1.6 chance so the odds of 2.1 that Coral offer look good value.
++ Half Time - Draw @ 2.1 on Coral (1pt)

Mansfield v Chester (eng div 2 – sat 3pm local time)

This was the main over/under game that stuck out and the over quotes always seem to be pretty generous in England. 9/14 Mansfield home games have been over 2.5 and 10/15 for Chester away. The total is 19/29 (66%) so should be odds of 1.53 but hunting round you can get above evens and on Bet365 in the additional goal line you can get 2.16. I’ll quote the simple VC Bet price for this which seems good value.
++ Over/Under 2.5 - Over @ 2.1 on VC Bet (1pt)

A sort of win bet and then a traditional one.

Valenciennes v Le Mans  (france ligue 1 – sat 8pm local time)

I have kept an eye on Valenciennes for a while and they won again at home last time out. Only Lyon have a better home record than them in France and that’s only because they’ve played a game more. They’ve won 5 of the last 6 home games (9/12 of all home games) and Le Mans come who have lost 5 of the last 7 on the road. Le Mans actually have a WDW record in the last 3 games but have scored just 2 goals in those games winning 1-0 at home twice and drawing 0-0. Valenciennes have scored 15 goals in their last 6 home games and I would be surprised if they are shut out by Le Mans. There were quite a few bets here that seemed value like the straight win, Valenciennes HT/FT but then when I looked at the AH console I saw one I really liked. If Valenciennes win then they normally win by more than 1 goal. 7 of the 9 home wins have come by 2 or more and 4/7 Le Mans defeats have come by 2 or more. That’s 11/24 (46%) games by 2 goals so odds should be 2.18 so the 4.3 looks great value.
++ Winning Margin – Valenciennes to win by 2 or more goals @ 4.33 on Bet365 (1pt)

Accrington v Stockport (eng div 2 – sat 3pm local time)

Accrington lost their last home game 3-0 to Lincoln and the manager had a go at fans abusing the team. They have another tough game this week as Stockport come. Stockport lost their last game 2-1to Bury but this was after being 1-0 up and having their goalie sent off a striker play in goal. Before that they were unbeaten in 9 and have won 5 in a row away. Accrington have lost 7 of the last 9 home games and I thought about looking at the AH for this game but really the win for Stockport looks good value.
++ Stockport @ 2.375 on Stan James/Bet Direct (1pt)

6 points bet in total

NOTES

Will add the Spinner Rinse later tonight.

SSS Tips

Just a few games this midweek but there were quite a few possible bets and I always get wary that I look too hard for bets when there are less games. I also have included a Champions League game. I know the console doesn’t include it but I really think it’s too good an opportunity to pass up.

Huddersfield v Millwall (eng div 1 – tues 7:45pm local time)

The HT chart highlighted this bet and when I dug deeper it looked like a good one. Huddersfield have been leading at HT in 8/15 home games and Millwall losing in 7/15. Add these together and you have exactly an evens chance of this happening. Huddersfield have been leading at HT in 4 of the last 6 games and Millwall behind in 3 of their last 6. The clincher for me was that have scored in the first half in all their last 6 games, whereas Millwall have only registered one goal in the first half in their last 6. I would say evens is about right and 2.5 is available in a few place but Betfred offer a cracking 2.63. The debate is always whether to continue the bet and take HT/FT but the odds are only 3.2 on Huddersfield/Huddersfield and doesn’t seem as much value.
++ Half Time - Huddersfield @ 2.63 on Betfred (1pt)

Stockport v Mansfield (eng div 2 – tues 7:45pm local time)

A risky bet but I’ll play half a point for some interest. Mansfield have won 4 games in a row away and the last 3 of them 2-1. Stockport also lost their last home game 2-1 and I think the high odds make it worth a small punt that it might happen again. 3 Stockport home games have ended up 2-1 to the away team and 3 of Mansfield’s away, so taking them together you have 6/32 (19%) and so odds of 5.33 rather than the 16/1 available. Asking Mansfield to win 2-1 four times in a row is a lot to ask but who knows!
++ Correct Score 1-2 @ 17 on general (½pt)

Liverpool v Inter Milan (champs lge – tues 7:45pm local time)

I know it’s not in the console but I have had my eye on Inter Milan all season and really fancy them to do very well in the Champions League. They remind me a bit of Man Utd in the treble season when they just win everything and even if they go behind you still think they’ll come back and win. I am going to use league form to briefly compare these games. At home Liverpool have a W5 D6 L1 record and 4 of the other teams in the top 6 have visited Anfield and Liverpool have not beaten any of them, drawing 3 and losing 1. Away from home Inter Milan have W7 D4 L0 and have also visited 4 of the top 6 teams and won 2 and drawn 2 letting in just 2 goals. All in Inter Milan have let in just 6 goals in their 11 away games in serie A this season. They seem solid at the back and Liverpool have had problems scoring recently. In the last 3 champions league games they plundered an amazing 16 goals but domestically if you look at the last 8 games they have scored 9 goals but 5 of them were in the victories, and the only victories in these games, over Sunderland and Derby. I could see it being 1-0 to Inter Milan and the 7/1 Paddy Power looks good value but I am happy to take Inter on the draw no bet as I really can’t see them losing.
++ Draw No Bet – Inter Milan @ 2 on Boyles/Blue Sq/Stan James/Bet Direct (1 pt)

2½ points bet in total

NOTES

Everything is in for midweek games bar the ref in Scotland. I’ll add that as soon as I can.

Not the best weekend but came out not too badly damaged. The champions league returns this midweek and there are some interesting games out there. From a betting perspective the Liverpool v Inter Milan game really interests me (Inter led at HT again this weekend!) as I feel Inter have been underrated. OK, Liverpool have a bit of a Champions League pedigree but they were quite lucky to qualify, even being in such a poor group and face possibly the best team in Europe. Definately the most consistent as they are still undefeated in the league. I wasn't going to include this in any midweek bets but might have to.

SSS Tips
Amazing symmetry in the double bet as both Falkirk and St Etienne won 4-0 so both parts a loser. The over 2.5 bet lost (probably due) as Inverness and Dundee Utd drew 1-1. Lens v Nice finished 0-0 so the HT draw part was a winner and I think their could be soem mileage in this bet. Northampton beat Gillingham 4-0 and luckily for us scored 2 mins before the break to land the HT/FT bet. I only be half a point on this because the odds were bigger but really should have stuck a point on it. However, playing safe in the Cheltenham game helped as they were held 1-1 so half a point was returned, so 2 wins, 2 losses and a half loss/half void loses -0.2 of a point.

Bets 98 Wins 45 (plus 7 void and 4 void/loss), Points staked 93.5 Profit +13.87

SSS Tips

We’ve done well lately and hope it continues.  Possibly not as many bets as normal but with the FA Cup on it means the whole premiership is off. I’m till wary of looking at Germany as they have only had two games since the winter break and also with the Champions League back this week it might be worth treading carefully in the top division in each country.

There have been a couple of winners on over 2.5 recently and as we have been backing what looked like 60-70% chances we are probably due a loser. There’s another one further down but I’ll start with a short odds double as I think we are due one of these.

Falkirk v St Mirren (scots prem – sat 3pm local time) / St Etienne v Nancy (france – 8pm local time)

Simple stats on these two. 8/12 Falkirk home games and 9/11 St Mirren away games have been under 2.5 goals. That makes 17/23 (74%) which should be 1.35 but can be backed at 1.67. St Etienne have had 9/11 home games under 2.5 and Nancy 9/12 away games. Looks to me like 18/23 (78%), which is 1.28 but can be backed at 1.55. Take the two together and I make it roughly a 1.73 chance so the bet365 odds of 2.59 look good value.
++ Under 2.5 goals Double @ 2.59 on Bet365 (1pt)

The next 4 are all single bets that statistically look good and caught my eye as I went through the console.

Inverness CT v Dundee United (scots prem – sat 3pm local time)

Maybe this is the over 2.5 bet we are due to lose on but it has to be a bet. 9/12 Inverness home games have been over 2.5 and for Dundee Utd away it’s a big 10/12. The two together is 19/24 (79) and should be odds of 1.26, so being able to get a price of 1.95 is too hard to turn down.
++ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)

Lens v Nice (france – sat 8pm local time)

These two teams produce big grey HT pie charts as 9/11 Lens home games have been drawn at HT and 9/12 games Nice have played on the road. Add them together and it’s 18/23 (78%) and so should be odds of 1.28. Betfred offer evens but Corals give 2.1 and that’s worth a bet.
++ Half Time - Draw @ 2.1 on Coral (1 pt)

Northampton v Gillingham (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

This is based on the fact that Gillingham lost away in 11 of their 15 games and have been down at HT in 9 of these (9/15). The Gills have lost their last 3 away games and head to Northampton who are unbeaten in 7 at home and have won 3 of the last 6. They have led at HT in each of these games as well as one of the draws. So, they have led at HT in 4 of the last 6 games and 7/16 home games. Of the 7 times they led at HT they went on to win 6 (6/16). Taking the two teams it looks like a 15/31 chance that Northampton will lead at HT and FT which is 48% so should be odds of around 2.05. You can get 3.2 at several firms but the 3.4 at Skybet really does look good value.
++ HT/FT – Northampton/Northampton @ 3.4 on Skybet (½pt)

Just one of the more traditional bets this week

Cheltenham v Hartlepool (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

These two teams are 18^th and 17^th respectively in the division so this is a 6 pointer. The prices are quite similar but for me the big difference is in the home and away form. Cheltenham have won 7 of their 16 home games this season but lately their form has improved and 6 of those wins have come in the last 8 games. Hartlepool have won just 3 times away this season but have lost 8 of the last 9 on the road. If this game goes to form then the Cheltenham price looks good value, but I will play a little safer and take the 0, -0.5 AH as it’s still above evens and returns half the stake if it’s a draw.
++ Cheltenham @ 0, -0.5 @ 2.1 on VC Bet/Bet365 (1pt)

4½ points bet in total

NOTES

I’ll add the Spinner Rinse later.

SSS Tips
Well what a bonus. Firstly, landed 4 out of 4 last night and, secondly, got my first comment on the blog from laidback. Thanks for that.

The over 2.5 bet was landed as Millwall beat Southend 2-1 and Darlington led 1-0 at HT against Notts County and went on to win the game. I debated doing the HT/FT result but the odds were not a great improvement. Stockport beat Rotherham 4-1, so the loss of their striker in the transfer window seems not to have affected them and they are worth looking at again and finally Grimsby won 2-1 at Macclesfield.

A very enjoyable +3.8 profit on those games.

Bets 93 Wins 43 (plus 7 void and 3 void/loss), Points staked 92 Profit +14.07

NOTES

I will update most of the divisions this morning but there's one more game in league 2 tonight as well as a game in Italy. These will be done on Thursday morning.

SSS Tips

We had a nice weekend so hopefully can build on that and find a small profit somewhere this week. It’s just games in England bar the Premiership but I will stick to the bear’s advice and avoid the championship again as it really is hard to call.

The first two games caught my eye statswise when using the console.

Millwall v Southend (eng lge 1 - tue 7:45pm local time)

This is an over 2.5 bet as the stats look decent compared to the odds. Ten of Millwall’s 15 home games have featured over 2.5 goals and 6 of the last 8. For Southend you have 9 of 15 away games and 5 of the last 6. Taking all these games it should have a 19/30 chance (63%) which would be odds of 1.58. As it can be backed at 2.05 on Pinnacle, evens on VC bet  and 2.025 on Bet365 it looks worth a punt.
++ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.025 on Bet365 (1pt)

Notts County v Darlington (eng lge 2 - tue 7:45pm local time)

Darlington are around the 2.2 mark to win this and I can’t see any real value in that. However, they have been leading at HT in 8/14 games away and 5 of the last 7. NottsCounty have been behind at HT 6/15 times and 3 of the last 6. Again, taking the stats Darlington to be leading at HT looks to be 14/29 (48%) which is odds of 2.07. The odds of 2.9 being offered by Bet365 swung me towards this and make it good value, but just the half point.
++ Darlington to lead at HT @ 2.9 on Bet365 (1/2 pt)

Now the more traditional bets

Rotherham v Stockport (eng lge 2 - tue 7:45pm local time)

Backed Stockport last week at Bury and they obliged but it’s a much harder task going to Rotherham. Stockport are in a good run of form and after picking up 26 points from their first 20 games have picked up 21 off a possible 30 in the last 10. They have not lost in 8 games, winning 6 of them and starting with the win away at MK Dons on 27^th October they have won 7 of the 9 away and only drawn once. Rotherham recently had a fantastic run of form but have hit a bit of a slump winning only 2 of the last 7 and the last three home games reads LDL. Maybe Stockport are about to enter the slump the Rotherham have found but the prices look too good here. Stockport are a massive 3.75 to win here but I think the safety net of draw no bet looks better. The Rotherham home and Stockport away records are identical as W8 D3 L4 so something closer to evens would be a better call. My only worry is that Stockport sold their top scorer during the transfer window so will go half a point.
++ Draw No Bet – Stockport @ 2.75 on VC Bet (1/2pt)

Macclesfield v Grimsby (eng lge 2 - tue 7:45pm local time)