View Article  Week 10 (10/10/08)

Been working hard on the console all day and the main console is done. I will remove the beta wording next week and will concentrate on adding cards to the mini-console and then correcting any snags there.

Less games this weekend and so naturally less selections

Grimsby v Wycombe (English League Two: Saturday 3pm BST)

This is one of those games that you look at and see a team that looks good value to win so then its about trying to extract the value bet from it. Unbeaten Wycombe are away at winless Grimsby and the stat that sticks out for me is that Grimsby have scored just one home goal in 4 games and Wycombe are yet to let in a goal on their travels. Does that mean each that these runs are likely to come to an end? I am happy to go along with the stats and the point to Wycombe winning to 0 but the odds on this are just 3.4. Wycombe’s scores away have been 0-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 0-1 so I am happy to cover 0-1 and 0-2 with ½ a point each, especially as 2/4 Grimsby home games have ended 0-2.

++ Correct Score – 0-1 and 0-2 @ 8 (Ladbrokes/Stan James) and 9.5 (Paddy Power/William Hill) (2 x ½pt = 1pt)

Leeds v Brighton (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

After winning 4 on the bounce Leeds went down to Peterborough last weekend and then also went out of the Johnstones Paint trophy in midweek. Maybe that’s no big deal but they look a quite a short price against a Brighton team who are unbeaten away. Brighton are not winning many games but have only lost 2 of their 9 and I think Leeds name has an effect on their price. At Elland Road this season they have W2, D1 and L1 with the wins coming against Crewe and Hereford who have amassed one away point in 8 games between them. I am very tempted by the 6 available on Brighton to win but will play safe as the Asian Handicap offers a nice line and a nice price. Brighton can be backed at above evens on +0.5, +1 and I think it’s worth a bet as a Leeds victory by more than one goal is the only way we lose the whole point.

++ Asian Handicap – Brighton (+0.5, +1) on VC @ 2.08 (1pt) - 2.05 on Bet365 (no Pinnacle price available but normally it’s the best)

2 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.
View Article  Week 9 Roundup (05/10/08)

That keen to get the round up done I wrote this last night. A fantastic weekend and after being a little over 2 points down this time a fortnight ago two decent weekends have moved up to within ½pt of 10! My modest target for the season is 20 points and that goes a long way to achieving that. I am realistic enough to know there will be losing weekends along the way but this puts us in a very solid position and I am really pleased. This is my second year doing this blog, and the 3rd year I have done corner bets and feel progress is being made. I will stop there as I am in danger of getting my own trumpet out. The other matches I mentioned as a possible double both lost so I got lucky there.

Atletico Madrid got hammered by Barcelona on Saturday night and that was a hard game to watch. Feel a bit let down by Atletico as they make out they will be the real deal and then  fall apart when the pressure comes, and they did the same at CampNou last season. Like last season they may go on and beat Barcelona when they are at home but it will be too late. They now have Real Madrid and Villareal to contend with and who knows what will happen. Sporting Gijón got off the mark with a 2-0 win at Mallorca and I’ll be watching them again in 2 weeks time after the international break when they play Osasuna and hope they can get more points.

The international break should be a nice opportunity to get some more work done on the site. I know there will be a few games but it won’t take up as much time as normal.

Back to the weekend andNewcastle beat Everton 5-3 on corners so that bet was easily landed. The big win was on the Derby game and I was out in the afternoon with my son and checked the internet on the bus coming home and saw it was 1-1 and had a glimmer of hope. These correct score bets are very risky but the reward was a 4.5pt profit as Derby won 2-1 at 11 (10/1). Leicester win again 1-0 keeping another clean sheet and the only non winner was Walsall who drew 0-0 at Hereford so we lose half a point there as half the bet was voided.

19 bets (17 points staked) :: 10 win – 1 void – 1 half void/loss – 7 losses :: +9.59

* This does not include the 2 antepost bets.

A few Confernence games to look at midweek but unlikely there will be bets there. Divisions 1 and 2 in England and the Conference will have full programs next weekend so back for that.
View Article  Week 9 (04/10/08)

We have moved into a healthy(ish) position now and hope we don’t blow it all. Somehow this midweek I didn’t put on the bet for Leicester which was a shame but maybe there will be some losers at other times where I do the same.

I added the badges to the console this week and it was tedious work but there were quite a few that I liked and made me laugh.

These ones I just thought were quite appealing to the eye. Not sure how football related the Hamburg one is

The next batch we start to get a bit odd. Leixoes in Portugal don't even include a football in their logo but managed to find the only cricket back in Portugal. That Heereneevn badge must be a sixties child, Xanthi obviously have someone famous they are proud of and the inspiration for Billy the Fish can be seen with Lorient.

Animals feature prominently in many badges but some of these seemed a bit strange. Hereford have just gone for the Bull and I have no idea what the Wycombe duck/swan/goose has attached to it. Who in Catania decided they should have an elephant in their badge and the less said about the Koln goat the better.

A few interesting matches around this weekend and I’m looking forward to Atletico Madrid at Barcelona late on Saturday night. Barca have thrown away a 2 goal lead at home to Betis only to grab a late winner, then needed two stoppage time goals to beat Espanyol and Shaktar. I have no idea why they persist with the shocking Victor Valdes in goal and if you spend over €20m on a fullback surely the budget stretches to a decent goalie. When they play Real Madrid you can just see the difference that Casillas makes compared to the negative effect of Valdes. Also Messi has been slightly injury prone and they will be in real trouble if he is out. Atletico have started in the tunnel of death and have to get something there.

Onto this weekends games. Apologies for the lightly briefer than normal write-ups but time pressures dictated that.

Everton v Newcastle (English Premiership: Sunday 4pm BST)

Starting with a corner bet and we haven’t had many games so far this season but hopefully I can demonstrate good reasoning for this. At Arsenal Newcastle lost 12-1 on the corner count and that has skewed all their averages. In the other 5 matches home and away they have had 5, 6, 5, 4 and 6 corners. Everton have been give a -2 handicap to overcome and this season they managed that in the Merseyside derby (which is a game I am happy to exclude) and then equalled it in one other game. If Newcastle get the 5 corner average that their previous results indicate then Everton will need 8 to win the bet. Kinnear is in charge and really has nothing to lose and can get Newcastle to attack which hopefully will lead to some corners. If we look at last seasons result This bet would have been a win for Newcastle 55% of the games which is odds of 1.8 and there’s not a huge margin with the price on offer but I think Everton have a lot to do to beat that line.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Newcastle (+2) @ 1.875 on Bet365 (1pt)

Norwich v Derby (English Championship: Saturday 3pm BST)

An interesting game as Derby seem to have discovered some form and are unbeaten in 5 and travel . Norwich’s home form mirrors that of Derby away with 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss but the other interesting stat is that all 8 of these games (Norwich home and Derby away) have been under 2.5 goals. The stats scream 1-1 at me but that looks a bit predictable and something urges me to back Derby so am prepared to risk a hard earned point on this match. It’s a big risk but the reward is clear.

++ Correct Score – 0-2 and 1-2 @ 13 and 11 generally (2 x ½pt = 1pt) – 15 on Paddy Power and 12 on Hills are the best

Huddersfield v Leicester (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

I backed Leicester in midweek and am happy to do so again. Leicester are top with 6 wins in the 8 matches and the best away record in the division. As I pointed out in midweek their defensive record is great and  fact they have conceded just 3 goals in 8 matches (1 in 3 at home) is very impressive. Huddersfield aren’t bad but with just 4 points from 4 home games Leicester look good value. Draw no bet at 1.82 on Ladbrokes is great but I’ll take the win bet this time.

++ Match Odds – Leicester @ 2.5 on Stan James/Bet Direct (1pt)

Hereford v Walsall (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

Aside from having a naff badge Hereford have a made a poor start to the season taking just 4 points in 8 games. Walsall have won 5/8 games this season and 4 of the last 5. They have lost just 2 games and Hereford have only won 1 so if we plump for the asian handicap here of Walsall (0, -0.5) we would have had a winner 11/16 games, a loser 3/16 and 2 games that were half lose/half void. If you see it like that it has to be a bet.

++ Asian Handicap – Walsall (0, -0.5) on Bet365 @ 2.1 (1pt) - 2.14 on Pinnacle

4 points staked on the weekend.

I think Mansfield look very solid in the conference and a double with West Ham was the other bet I considered so will back that as well.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

View Article  MidWeek 8.5 Roundup (01/10/08)

Another winner! A nice little run been put together and realistic enough to know it won’t last but the start of the season is all about trying to get a nice cushion between you and 0. The QPR v Blackpool game ended 1-1 and I had started a write up that was selecting 0-1 and 1-1 as the scores in that game. A shame but then earlier in the season there were a few games on my shortlist I dropped and none of them won so it’s all swings and roundabouts and at least I know I’m going in the right direction.

Not totally sure how Real Madrid survived against Zenit as the last half an hour was Zenit ripping them to shreds at will and creating chance after chance. They really are some team and be a shame if they don’t progress. Lyon drew with Bayern after leading but there don’t seem to be any other good opportunities tonight.

To recap Leicester won 1-0 landing both parts of the handicap and giving us a nice 1.14 profit.

15 bets (14 points staked) :: 8 win – 1 void – 6 losses :: +3.22

Back with the weekend selections on Friday
View Article  MidWeek 8.5 (30/09/08)

The Champions League is back and Bayern Muncih look worth opposing against Lyon. Munchen have taken just 8 of a possible 24 points this season, whereas Lyon have 19 of a possible 21 and made a great start. The 3.6 Paddy Power offer looks about right rather than the 4.5 on Boyles and Skybet.

One game in the championship stood out which was Blackpool at QPR as Blackpool look a very good price but I couldn’t find the right bet. I was about to have a blank day but then saw the one League One fixture and like the look of it.

Colchester v Leicester (English League One: Tuesday 8pm BST)

Leicester have lost just one game this season, which was against the impressive Millwall. In their 7 matches they have scored 13 goals, let in 3 and had clean sheets in 4/7 matches. If they were to win tonight they would go top by 1 point. They have won 3-0 and 4-1 in their last 2 away games and travel to Colchester who have not won yet at home and only scored 2 goals in those 3 games. They have conceded on average more than 2 goals in their seven games so far this season and it might not be that they are that bad but I think Leicester have started well and I like the price on offer. In the last 2 seasons the four fixtures between these sides have been draws so immediately the security of the AH appeals. The line of Leicester (0, -0.5) is available at 2.15 on Canbet and Pinnacle and with Leicester a best priced 2.5 for the win I think its good value. There are not a lot of games to go on this season but in the 3 Colchester home and 3 Leicester away games this season this bet would have won 3 times and half void/loss the other 3.

++ Asian Handicap – Leicester (0, -0.5) @ 2.14 on Ladbrokes (1pt) – 2.15 on Pinnacle/Canbet and 2.1 on Bet365

Good luck in whatever bets you do.
View Article  Week 8 Roundup (29/09/08)

Last weekends roundup wasn’t nice to write but this one is a joy. A full house on the weekend and a bit gutted as last season I always did an accumulator on all the selections but hadn’t done that yet this season. I think it would have been around 12.5 on Bet365 (can only bet Chelsea once so would have only got Leeds from the double)! I watched Sporting Gijón lose to Villareal on Saturday night but was really pleased with how well they played and they deserved much more from the game. They missed some good chances and the goal was a clear handball but they are out of the crazy set of games now so hopefully can start to accumulate some points. It’s no coincidence that them and racing sit at the bottom and they were the first two teams to run the Sevilla-Barcelona-Real Madrid-Villareal gauntlet.

Sevilla won at Atletico Madrid and I got that game wrong and glad I didn’t bet on it. Atletico now have a tough 3 games and have to get at least a couple of wins to prove they are real challengers and sadly are missing a few players like Forlan, Maniche and Simao. I was not sure about Valencia but they have kept up their good start and look to have shaken off all the bad effects of Koemen’s time there. I think Edu is a fantastic player and would like to see him go a bit of time injury free and with Villa and the impressive 20 year old Mata adding goals they coulddo well.

Back to the weekend andChelsea won 2-0 away and with the bookies pricing that score up at 6 it shows how they don’t miss a trick as those were seriously low odds. We won the AH bet andLeeds winning 1-0 against Hereford meant the double was landed as well. Spurs beat Pompey 6-3 in the corner count and very pleased with that one and then Millwall won 2-1 against Swindon and keep up their good start. Wiped out last weekends losses and back into the positive again.

14 bets (13 points staked) :: 7 win – 1 void – 6 losses :: +2.08

* This does not include the 2 antepost selections a Carew scored again and is now as low as 16/1 with Stan James

A full set in the championship this midweek so will have a look around but unlikely to find any bets so probably back next weekend.
View Article  Week 8 (26/09/08)

Well I didn’t get as much done on the site as I wanted this week. The mini-console is still without the cards section and there is a list of snags for the main console. This is what I will concentrate on next and add all the badges etc. Once it’s completed and I’m happy I’ll add the cards tab to the mini-console and snag that too.

Some interesting games around this week and for me the game between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla will be a good indicator of how ready Atletico are. The fixture list in Spain is ridiculous this season with teams playing Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid and then Villareal on consecutive weeks. Atletico are just entering this phase and I’ll be at the Molinon on Saturday evening to see Gijón play Villareal and end their tunnel of death against those teams. Always a bit tricky this weekend as the Champions League is on again next week and the Atletico game against Liverpool should be lively.

Last weekend I got a bit burnt so have decided to stick with what I know and really try and use stats from this season and last to justify the bets. Once we get to 10 games in most leagues more patterns should emerge and bets be easier to find.

Onto this weekends games.

Stoke v Chelsea (English Premiership: Saturday 3pm BST)

I looked at this game from many angles anddespite Stoke getting the better of us last weekend I want to oppose them again. Chelsea have started the season well and scored 10 goals in their 5 games and everyone expects them to beat Stoke. I looked at angles like the HT/FT result, them to win 2-0 etc but nothing stood up well enough. 2-0 is a best priced 6.5 and I would think backing Chelsea to win by that scoreline in their away games (minus the big 4 clashes) would yield a decent profit. You’d only need it to come in 3 times to break even and last season it came up 5 times. The Asian Handicap was the bet that appealed to me here with the line set at Chelsea (-1, -1.5 or -1.25). I looked at last seasons games and taking games against teams that finished in the bottom half, as you expect Stoke will, they lost the bet once, had it half void/half lost 5 times and won it on 4 occasions. At the price on offer tomorrow it would have produced a very small profit and I think this season they may score more goals than last time. Would have been a winner against ManCity as well and even though they travel to Romania this week I think the team they put out will be good enough to win, and hopefully win well.

++ Asian Handicap – Chelsea (-1, -1.5) @ 1.98 on Bet365 (1pt)

Portsmouth v Tottenham (English Premiership: Sunday 1:30pm BST)

I do like a corner bet and looking at the weekends fixtures this one stands out. This season Spurs average 8.8 corners (8.5 in away matches) to Portsmouths 3.6 (3.5 in home matches) and Spurs get the handicap. If we look at last season in all Pompey home games the average supremacy was 0.7 and for Spurs away the average supremacy was -0.2 so therefore the Pompey -0.5 quote is almost spot on as the average there is 0.45. However, the one thing about Pompey last season was that after the opening 7 games they won the supremacy just 5 times and in those 12 games averaged just 4.5 corners. A corner count of 5 or 6 for Spurs could well win this and I think they’re more than capable of that and the evens quote makes this bet very appealing.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Tottenham (+0.5) @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt)

Stoke v Chelsea (English Premiership: Saturday 3pm BST) / Leeds v Hereford (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

I want to include this game in a 1 point double as well. Last season the only away games Chelseadidn’t win were against Spurs, Villa, Pompey, Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal and are very consistent against the lower clubs. Dropping big 4 games they won 13/16 which is over 80% and odds of 1.23. Last season Leeds won 15/23 home games and although that gives them odds of 1.53 which is higher than the 1.4 on offer they have started this season very well and have bottom of the table Hereford as visitors. They have lost 5 of their 7 matches and you would expect Leeds to win.

++ Win Double (Chelsea/Leeds) @ 1.9 on Blue Sq/Tote/888 (1pt) – 1.96 on Betfred

Swindon v Millwall (English League One: Sunday 2pm BST

I looked at this game a few times and in the end have decided to go for it. Swindon have lost 1/3 home games this season and have just one in the last 6 games. Millwall are the visitors and they have won 4 on the bounce and their only loss this season came in a 4-3 ding dong away to league leaders Oldham. In their 6 other games they have conceded just 2 goals and although the win market at 3 appeals I will stick on the Asian handicap.

++ Asian Handicap – Millwall (0) on Bet365 @ 2.25 (1pt) - 2.29 on Pinnacle

4 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

View Article  MidWeek 7.5 Roundup (25/09/08)

Well a very small loss on the day. Real Madrid gave Gijón a right spanking winning 7-1 and maybe there would have been better bets based around them scoring a lot of goals. Gijón have lost to them, Barça and Sevilla in consecutive games leaking 17 goals but have managed to score in every game which at least gives them hope. They host Villareal on Saturday and unsurprisingly Villareal have been cut from evens to a best priced 1.73 for that game. Atletico Madrid won impressively against Getafe and a shame I didn’t take that bet on but both they and Villareal look very good prospects for the league. Barcelona won 3-2 after surrendering a 2 goal lead against Betis and look a bit suspect.

Espanyol let us down losing 2-0 to Sevilla. Last season Sevilla played some fantastic football and the first half against Zaragoza when they went ahead 5-0 was possibly one of the best performances I have ever seen. This season they don’t look too hot but did the business last night. If I had known Tamudo wasn’t playing I might have been less keen on the bet but Eurosport never mentioned that. I will look for better sources of news.

10 bets (9 points staked) :: 3 win – 1 void – 6 losses :: -2